Abstract
Century Aluminum will release fourth-quarter 2025 results after market close (Post Market) on February 19, 2026; this preview summarizes last quarter’s performance, the latest quarterly forecasts for revenue, margins and EPS, and the prevailing institutional stance ahead of the print.Market Forecast
Based on the latest compiled projections, Century Aluminum’s fourth-quarter revenue is estimated at $645.08 million, implying 25.19% year-over-year growth; consensus also embeds an estimated EPS of $1.29, suggesting a 190.64% year-over-year increase, and an EBIT estimate of $141.80 million, up 189.98% year over year. Forecasts do not explicitly provide margin guidance; however, the magnitude of the EPS and EBIT step-up versus last year points to a materially improved earnings profile if realized.The main business remains primary aluminum sales, with the revenue mix in the previous quarter split between related-party sales and other customers; near-term outlook will track shipment cadence, realized Midwest premiums, and input cost normalization. The most promising near-term revenue channel is the related-party line, which delivered $319.60 million last quarter; segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, Century Aluminum generated $632.20 million in revenue, a gross profit margin of 12.23%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $14.90 million, a net profit margin of 2.36%, and adjusted EPS of $0.56; revenue increased 17.27% year over year while adjusted EPS declined 11.11% year over year.A key financial highlight was the sharp quarter-on-quarter rebound in net profit, which rose by 423.91%, alongside operating profit of $76.50 million that expanded 19.91% from a year earlier. The main business mix remained balanced, with $319.60 million from related-party sales and $312.60 million from other customers in the last quarter; segment-level year-over-year comparisons were not disclosed.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Primary aluminum operations and realized pricing
The current quarter’s revenue and earnings trajectory will be steered by realized aluminum prices and the U.S. Midwest premium, which directly influence top-line and gross margin capture on shipped volumes. The revenue estimate of $645.08 million, paired with an EBIT estimate of $141.80 million and EPS of $1.29, collectively imply stronger unit margins versus the year-ago period if volumes and realized pricing hold to plan. This forecasted earnings acceleration aligns with the prior quarter’s operating profit momentum, suggesting that price capture and cost control could combine to lift profitability even if headline revenue growth is moderate on a sequential basis. Margin sensitivity remains highest to price realization and power costs; the shape of the quarter will therefore hinge on the interplay between premiums realized on U.S. sales and energy inputs tied to smelting operations.Within the primary operations, shipment mix and customer premiums can affect average realized prices and the conversion of revenue to gross profit. If the mix skews toward domestic contracted volumes carrying Midwest premiums, adjusted EPS could track the forecasted ramp given the leverage of fixed smelting costs. Conversely, any compression in realized premiums or adverse movement in input costs would weigh on gross margin, which stood at 12.23% in the last reported quarter. Investors will focus on whether the company can translate the forecasted EBIT and EPS gains into sustained margin expansion through disciplined cost management and pricing execution.
Related-party revenue channel and contracted volumes
The related-party sales channel accounted for $319.60 million of last quarter’s revenue, essentially half of the period’s total. For the current quarter, this channel’s performance will be a key determinant of realized price stability because contracted flows can offer clearer visibility on volumes and premiums. When those terms hold, the company can better align production to demand and capture premiums, which supports both revenue consistency and margin delivery. With the forecast embedding a 25.19% year-over-year revenue increase and nearly tripling EBIT and EPS, execution in the related-party book is an important lever to achieving the projected bottom-line gains.On-the-ground cost discipline around raw materials and power, coupled with stable offtake under related-party arrangements, can help dampen volatility in unit economics. If those dynamics are favorable this quarter, the related-party line may again anchor performance relative to spot-exposed sales to other customers. While specific year-over-year growth for this channel is not disclosed, its dollar contribution and potential for pricing visibility support the case that it remains a central contributor to the forecasted uplift in EBIT and EPS. For shareholders, confidence in this channel’s predictability will be part of the narrative that justifies the projected earnings expansion.
Share-price drivers: realized premiums, operating leverage, and project pipeline
The stock’s near-term reaction will be most sensitive to three variables: realized U.S. premiums captured in the quarter, evidence of operating leverage in smelting margins, and updates that shape expectations for medium-term capacity and mix. The revenue and EPS forecasts imply material margin tailwinds; if results show gross margin tracking above last quarter’s 12.23% with a corresponding lift in net margin, the market may infer durability in the operating model, which would underscore the forecasted EPS of $1.29. Conversely, if premiums or costs deviate from expectations, the translation from revenue to profit could be less robust, and the gap between EBIT and net profit may widen depending on below-the-line items.Beyond near-term metrics, investors will parse commentary on capital allocation and growth pathways that can influence the valuation multiple. Announced strategic initiatives to expand domestic capacity via joint development underpin a longer-term growth narrative that can support sentiment ahead of commissioning timelines. While those projects are not near-term earnings contributors, clarity on permitting, financing, and schedule can shape expectations for future revenue mix and scale effects. In the present quarter, incremental disclosures that sharpen visibility on forward volumes and cost normalization may serve as catalysts alongside headline revenue and EPS delivery versus forecasts.
Analyst Opinions
Recent institutional commentary skews positive. Across the period, the ratio of bullish to bearish previews is tilted to bullish, with no notable bearish previews identified in the monitored window and at least one prominent upward revision in target price. B. Riley raised its price target on Century Aluminum to $64 from $37 while maintaining a Buy rating, and the stock carries an average rating of Buy with a mean price target of $54.75 across surveyed analysts. This setup reflects an expectation that year-over-year operating performance will improve and that the forecasted step-up in EBIT and EPS could reframe the run-rate earnings power if execution aligns with the numbers embedded in the quarter’s estimates.The bullish stance rests on the magnitude of forecast changes implied by the latest quarter’s projections: revenue growth of 25.19% year over year paired with an estimated EPS of $1.29 and EBIT of $141.80 million, each suggesting a substantial improvement versus the prior year’s period. Analysts are pointing to a favorable earnings slope and are aligning price targets with a higher profit base that the market may begin to price more fully if the company confirms the forecasted progress. The prior quarter’s performance, which featured a return to positive net profit of $14.90 million and operating profit of $76.50 million, provides a foundation for this view; the sequential rebound in net profit by 423.91% reinforces the idea that operating leverage is translating into the income statement under supportive pricing and cost conditions.
The majority perspective highlights that valuation support can broaden if the company stays on track to convert higher revenue into stronger margins and net income. Within that framework, buy-rated analysts are likely to look for confirmation in three areas on February 19, 2026: delivery on the EPS estimate of $1.29 or better, evidence that gross margin and net margin have moved ahead of last quarter’s 12.23% and 2.36%, respectively, and constructive commentary on shipment mix and realized premiums. Should those boxes be checked, the implied earnings trajectory may validate the higher price objectives and sustain the bullish narrative into subsequent quarters.