Over the past weekend, renewed conflict in the Middle East emerged as a "black swan" event disrupting global financial markets. The attack on Iran has drawn significant market attention, driving strength in safe-haven assets and a surge in energy prices, prompting rapid portfolio adjustments by global capital. In the face of this sudden shift, how should investors position themselves? Which commodities hold hidden opportunities, and which assets are likely to face pressure?

Commodity markets are facing a major test, with rational positioning being key to long-term success. On February 28th local time, a joint U.S.-Israeli military strike targeted Iran. Iran subsequently announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and initiated large-scale retaliation, causing a sudden escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The impact quickly spread to global commodity markets, triggering significant volatility in energy, chemicals, shipping, and precious metals. Market避险 sentiment is now intertwined with supply-demand dynamics, creating considerable uncertainty about future price movements.

The halt to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has placed the energy market on the front lines. As a critical chokepoint for global energy transport, the strait handles approximately 20% of the world's oil trade and 20% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. Due to the heightened tensions, shipping has stalled, with numerous tankers halting operations to avoid risks. This raises concerns about a potential shortfall in the global supply of roughly 18 million barrels of crude oil per day. According to Ye Haiwen, Manager of the Energy and Chemicals Research Center at Guomao Futures Research Institute, Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day, exporting nearly 2 million barrels, which accounts for roughly 2% of global consumption and 3% of global production capacity. Any disruption to its supply will directly impact the crude oil market. Furthermore, as a major global supplier of high-sulfur fuel oil, with monthly exports of about 1.5 million metric tons, an escalation of the conflict will further tighten supply for this commodity.

The LNG market is also facing a severe test. Ye Haiwen indicated that Qatar, the world's second-largest LNG exporter, relies entirely on the Strait of Hormuz for its exports. A prolonged blockade of the strait would risk disrupting its annual LNG trade of nearly 100 million metric tons. Additionally, Iran holds the world's second-largest methanol production capacity from natural gas, with an annual capacity of approximately 17 million metric tons, accounting for 59% of China's methanol imports. A worsening situation directly fuels concerns about potential methanol supply disruptions.

Pressure is mounting on the shipping market, with freight and insurance costs rising sharply. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has prohibited any vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, leading many global oil companies and trading giants to suspend ship transits. War risk insurance premiums for tankers could surge by over 300%. Concurrently, Yemen's Houthi forces have announced the resumption of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, prompting major carriers like Maersk to reroute some Europe-bound voyages from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope. These detours, which extend voyage times and increase costs, are further driving up container shipping rates.

Regarding the future development of the situation, analysts generally believe risks will persist. Overall, a continued escalation of the Iran situation will keep commodity markets volatile. Energy and shipping commodities are the most directly impacted, chemical product trends are likely to diverge, while precious metals continue to benefit from避险 sentiment. Investors need to closely monitor geopolitical developments, strictly control risks, and flexibly adjust their strategies to navigate market uncertainty.

Institutional Perspectives

Question 1: How long will this round of geopolitical conflict last? Answer: The main phase of conflict is expected to last approximately two weeks. The most likely scenario involves the U.S. and Israel completing their core strikes, Iran carrying out retaliation, followed by international mediation. However, a subsequent phase of military deterrence and diplomatic negotiations could persist for months. Consequently, Brent crude oil is expected to test the $80-$85 per barrel range in the coming week and maintain a state of high volatility. (COFCO Futures)

Question 2: How should one position in the gold market? Are long positions secure? Answer: The subsequent trajectory of gold prices will heavily depend on the intensity of Iran's retaliation and the scope of conflict escalation. In the short term, gold is expected to maintain high volatility. In the medium term, as long as there are no clear signals of de-escalation in the Middle East, gold's避险 attributes and anti-inflation logic will remain effective. Long-term underlying drivers, such as continued gold purchases by global central banks and the deepening trend of de-dollarization, remain unchanged. Coupled with frequent geopolitical conflicts, gold's long-term value as a strategic allocation will continue to be supported, making it a core tool for hedging systemic risk within an asset portfolio. (Zhonghui Futures)

Question 3: With crude oil surging, is the energy and chemicals sector a sure bet? Answer: The outbreak of international geopolitical conflict over the weekend has worsened the Middle East situation, making geopolitics a flashpoint for the crude oil market. Crude oil futures prices are expected to experience sharp fluctuations. This impact will not only transmit to the Brent crude market but is also anticipated to cause significant gains in the energy and chemicals market. Given the current macroeconomic cycle and industry supply-demand feedback, the prevailing outlook for the energy and chemicals sector remains bullish. (Nanhua Futures)

Question 4: The metals sector is rising in tandem; is now an opportunity to invest? Answer: For critical minerals like copper, the impact of this event transcends simple demand-supply analysis. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is bound to heighten anxiety among major consuming nations regarding the security of supply chains for geographically concentrated critical minerals. Its pricing logic is shifting from an "industry supply-demand curve" to a "strategic scarcity curve." Although the copper market faces short-term pressures from high inventories and the pace of post-holiday resumption of work, in the face of supply chain security demands, these "weak realities" are unlikely to hinder the "strong trend" of its value reassessment. Every price pullback in copper should be viewed as a reconfirmation of its strategic resource attributes and a potential entry point. (Guosen Futures)