Abstract

Murphy USA will release its Q4 2025 results on February 04, 2026 Post Market; this preview compiles last quarter’s actuals, company and market forecasts, business segment dynamics, and the prevailing analyst stance to frame expectations and risks for the upcoming print.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company-compiled forecasts indicate Murphy USA’s current quarter revenue of $4.85 billion, up 0.35% year over year, with EBIT estimated at $196.97 million and adjusted EPS at $6.65, reflecting a modest 1.57% year-over-year increase; margin expectations remain contained with no explicit consensus on gross margin or net margin trends. The main business highlight centers on stable fuel merchandising with disciplined pricing and resilient non-fuel retail, while the most promising segment is merchandise, which continues to provide steadier gross profit contribution relative to fuel; revenue for merchandise last quarter was $1.12 billion, although the year-over-year change was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Murphy USA reported revenue of $5.11 billion, a gross profit margin of 7.94%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $0.13 billion with a net profit margin of 2.89%, and adjusted EPS of $6.76; the year-over-year changes were revenue down 2.45%, net profit down 10.78% sequentially, and EPS down 6.11% year over year. A key financial highlight was the maintenance of gross margin discipline amid lower year-over-year revenue, supporting a relatively stable operating profile, while the main business was led by petroleum products at $3.92 billion, with merchandise at $1.12 billion and other business at $0.06 billion; specific year-over-year growth by segment was not provided.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Fuel operations and pricing dynamics

Fuel remains Murphy USA’s core revenue engine, and the upcoming quarter hinges on the trajectory of retail fuel margins rather than absolute gallon volumes. The forecast calls for revenue of $4.85 billion and EBIT of $196.97 million, which suggests a conservative stance on fuel margin assumptions compared with the prior quarter’s 7.94% gross margin profile. Seasonal traffic patterns in late Q4 can support steady gallons, but retail margin per gallon often moderates if wholesale prices firm or volatility declines; the mix of diesel versus gasoline and competitive intensity at store level will influence realized margin dollars. Given the relatively tight EBIT estimate and only a 0.35% revenue increase year over year, the market appears to assume limited upside from fuel margin uplift this quarter. Any deviation—such as favorable price volatility or a shift toward higher-margin grades—could translate quickly into EBIT and EPS outperformance, while a benign or compressing margin setup would keep results near the midpoint of estimates.

Most promising business: Merchandise resilience and mix optimization

Merchandise sales, which contributed $1.12 billion last quarter, continue to offer steadier gross profit contributions than fuel and can cushion quarter-to-quarter swings in fuel profitability. Category management remains a lever: packaged beverages, energy drinks, tobacco alternatives, and high-margin front-end items help expand gross profit dollars even if traffic is uneven. The company’s focus on promotions, loyalty engagement, and price architecture is commonly used in convenience retail to lift unit economics, and this can support EBIT consistency against modest headline revenue growth. With the current quarter’s revenue growth expectation at only 0.35% year over year, incremental merchandise margin capture becomes a crucial driver for hitting the $196.97 million EBIT and $6.65 EPS estimates; a stronger holiday calendar pull-through or better-than-expected promotional elasticity could provide modest upside.

Stock price drivers this quarter: Margin prints, mix, and expense control

The stock reaction is likely to hinge on realized retail fuel margins relative to embedded expectations as well as signals on January run-rate conditions. If management indicates that Q4 ended with supportive margin trends and that early Q1 demand has not deteriorated, the market could reward the print despite low top-line growth. Merchandise momentum and operating expense control will also be closely watched: labor, shrink, and card fees can offset merchandise gains if not contained, so commentary around store-level productivity and cost initiatives will be a key read-through for sustainability of EBIT near the $197.00 million mark. Finally, any color on capital allocation—unit openings, remodel cadence, and buyback pacing—can frame EPS trajectory beyond the quarter, but near-term share price sensitivity will remain most acute to margin outcomes and guidance tone on fuel and non-fuel mix.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent institutional commentary skews cautiously positive, reflecting an expectation for stable to slightly improving EPS on balanced fuel margins and consistent merchandise profitability, with fewer calls for downside risk relative to last quarter’s modest miss versus EPS estimates. Analysts highlighting the setup emphasize that even small changes in retail fuel margin can drive outsized EPS variability around a mid-$6.00 print, but the prevailing view assumes margin normalization rather than compression, supporting a base-case EPS near $6.65. Well-followed sell-side voices point to the company’s execution discipline and a track record of expense management and loyalty engagement as offsets to subdued top-line growth, and they flag merchandise mix improvements as a mitigant if fuel margin volatility subsides. The majority perspective therefore anticipates an in-line to slight-beat quarter, contingent on steady gallon trends and no adverse late-quarter wholesale price shocks, while the minority more cautious outlook centers on the possibility of tighter retail spreads and softer post-holiday traffic pressuring EBIT below $190.00 million.