Alibaba's AI Agent Goes Live! Ecosystem Flywheel Ignites Valuation Shift in Hong Kong Internet Stocks

Deep News
Jan 19

Recent A-share trading volume hit a new high, with themes like commercial aerospace and AI applications once sparking a wave of limit-up rallies. However, market sentiment has cooled under regulatory guidance, leading the market into a phase of consolidation. Nevertheless, the essence of this adjustment is healthy. From a broader macro perspective, household savings are continuously shifting from low-yield assets like deposits and bonds to the equity market, forming a structural "liquidity reallocation." Concurrently, the central bank has clearly stated that there is "still room for RRR and interest rate cuts," indicating a persistently accommodative liquidity environment. Against this backdrop, as the previously overheated speculative fervor in A-shares subsides, capital is expected to flow towards the Hong Kong stock market, which offers more attractive valuations and a more solid fundamental footing. Particularly noteworthy is that a significant portion of this incremental capital is entering collectively through ETFs, creating a pronounced positive feedback mechanism in the market where fund flows and price discovery mutually reinforce each other. This signifies that ETFs are no longer merely simple investment products but have become highly efficient hubs for asset allocation. Therefore, as off-market funds persistently chase scarce assets, more ETF-driven market trends may emerge, further highlighting the growing importance of Hong Kong stock ETFs. Among them, the Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770, Off-exchange Connect: 017126) is a noteworthy option. Its constituent stocks not only precisely target leading tech companies but also encompass deeply integrated ecosystem businesses. For instance, this ETF includes platform giants like Alibaba, alongside vertical application leaders such as Alibaba Health, providing investors with an excellent pathway to capture the current recovery trend driven by AI and the internet sector. First, the recovery logic for internet stocks: a resonance of certainty and valuation discounts. Unlike some A-share themes lacking stable earnings support, leading Hong Kong internet companies have demonstrated significant first-mover advantages in AI commercialization. Numerous AI applications are rapidly transitioning from technological visions to tangible commercial realities, becoming prime destinations for "excess liquidity." From a valuation perspective, the appeal of the Hong Kong internet sector is exceptionally prominent: - Hang Seng Stock Connect Internet Index: PE approximately 26x (34th historical percentile) - Global comparison: Nasdaq Index PE is as high as 42x (72nd percentile), while the A-share ChiNext Index is around 43x (51st percentile).

This significant valuation gap offers substantial risk-reward potential for off-market capital seeking growth or averse to high valuations. Second, the narrative upgrade led by Alibaba's AI Agent. If valuation repair forms the foundation, then breakthroughs in AI technology serve as the core catalyst for re-rating. As the top constituent (over 15% weighting) of the Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770), Alibaba's initiatives are spearheading this narrative upgrade. On January 15th, Alibaba officially launched its Qwen Task Assistant 1.0, supporting over 400 digital tasks including application development, office work, and learning assistance, with plans for full free access in the future. More critically, through system-level integration, Alibaba has deeply embedded core businesses within its ecosystem—such as Taobao, Alipay, Fliggy, and Amap—making it the first global tech company to achieve multi-category AI shopping functionality. In practical scenarios, users can complete full-chain transactions like ordering food delivery, booking flights, or cross-platform shopping with a single command, eliminating the need to switch between multiple apps. This not only surpasses the collaborative plans of Google and Walmart but also marks Alibaba AI's official transition from a "chat tool" into the "AI Agent era." Wu Jia, President of the Qwen C-end Business Group, mentioned that in the next two years, AI is expected to directly handle 60-70% of routine tasks in the digital world, while creative tasks will see significant efficiency gains due to AI's deep involvement. This reflects AI's gradual evolution into the core force for handling affairs in the digital realm. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities pointed out that Alibaba possesses both top-tier models and a vast consumer ecosystem. The deep integration of Tongyi Qwen with its e-commerce ecosystem not only interconnects traffic across multiple platforms within the ecosystem, providing users with a unified AI experience, but also offers rich scenarios for B-end merchants to implement GEO marketing strategies, potentially becoming a super gateway in the AI era. This "Large AI Model + Ecosystem" model is precisely the core logic behind the value re-rating of internet companies' AI capabilities—AI technology is no longer merely a R&D expense but is transforming into tangible business empowerment and traffic growth. Furthermore, the value spillover effects of AI on ecosystem partners are also noteworthy. For example, Alibaba Health, as the flagship pharmaceutical e-commerce platform within the Alibaba ecosystem, is poised to benefit from traffic diversion via the Qwen App. Additionally, in December 2025, Ant Group announced the brand upgrade of its "Ant Afu" AI health application, which has already reached 30 million monthly active users. This implies the closed-loop commercial potential of AI health Agents, spanning from consultation and medication purchase to insurance claims settlement. Leading platforms like Alibaba Health and JD Health will be among the first to capture such high-frequency health management demands, achieving a business model transition from low-frequency medical consultations to high-frequency health management. Indeed, globally, the AI health sector has become a strategic high ground for tech giants to build core moats. Not only are domestic players actively advancing, but leading international firms are also accelerating the deepening of their technological barriers through密集 product launches and diversified layouts. On January 13th, Google showcased its leading capabilities in medical AI, including the open-source multimodal instruction-tuned model MedGemma 1.5 4B and the medical speech recognition model MedASR. Simultaneously, OpenAI, through its acquisition of the healthcare company Torch, aims to deeply integrate its technology into ChatGPT Health to create personalized health management solutions. Apple plans to introduce an AI Agent in the iOS 26.4 system, reshaping the health application ecosystem and completing the management loop from monitoring to intervention. Returning to Alibaba itself, it is reshaping its growth logic through the flywheel effect of "AI + Cloud." As AI applications drive massive traffic flows, Alibaba Cloud has set a clear goal: to capture 80% of the incremental market share in China's AI cloud market by 2026. From a capital perspective, with the advent of the "Agent Commerce" era, market evaluation criteria are shifting from traditional "traffic/fulfillment" metrics towards "gateway, data, and delivery capabilities." This suggests that Alibaba has the potential to shed its singular e-commerce label and achieve a valuation leap towards being an "AI application" company, while other tech giants like Tencent are also poised to find new opportunities in this round of ecosystem re-rating. Third, the new wave of internet stock rallies. The comprehensive upgrade of Alibaba's Qwen App marks the official commencement of the battle for internet gateways in 2026. Compared to the rally in early 2025, current large models have achieved a qualitative leap in deep reasoning stability and tool invocation capabilities, providing solid support for the sustainability of this trend. Importantly, this competition directly relates to a company's strategic influence within the AI-era ecosystem, making it a crucial battleground that all players must contest. Although Tencent has accumulated strong user stickiness through its social business, its business defenses are facing challenges from the traffic diversion caused by powerful AI super gateways like those of Alibaba and Douyin. Consequently, Tencent is also expected to accelerate the launch of more competitive AI gateway products to counter these challenges. It is foreseeable that the market trend will shift from being "driven by Alibaba alone" to a pattern of "multiple leaders pushing forward simultaneously." This not only further strengthens the growth narrative of the sector but also makes related investment opportunities more diverse. The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) achieves comprehensive coverage of core leaders like Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, Xiaomi, and Kuaishou, while also including key players along the industry chain such as Alibaba Health, JD Health, Ping An Good Doctor, and China Literature. This portfolio configuration diversifies the volatility risk associated with any single stock, eliminates the need to track complex business developments closely, and enables investors to capture returns across the entire industry chain—from large model R&D to vertical application scenarios. It represents a high-quality allocation tool for sharing the long-term dividends of this industrial trend and is worthy of attention.

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