Gold markets are currently positioned at a confluence of multiple bullish factors. Geopolitical risks are at their highest level in recent years, with no signs of near-term easing. Disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are driving oil prices higher, contributing to persistent inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve faces a policy dilemma, while lower real interest rates provide underlying support for gold. Furthermore, constraints on physical gold circulation are exacerbating supply tightness.

Recent statements suggesting that a larger wave of conflict may be forthcoming imply the potential for further escalation. Until uncertainties diminish, safe-haven demand is expected to continue driving market sentiment. From a technical perspective, gold has broken through the $5,300 level and is approaching its all-time high of $5,596. Should geopolitical tensions intensify or inflation data exceed expectations, prices may test new highs. Investors should monitor upcoming U.S. economic releases, including the ADP employment report, non-farm payrolls, and inflation indicators, which will offer further clues regarding the Fed’s policy direction.

In yesterday’s session, gold opened higher near $5,316 amid risk-off sentiment and extended gains to a daily peak around $5,419 before entering a consolidation phase. Profit-taking during U.S. hours pushed prices down to a session low of $5,260, though a late rebound lifted the metal to close near $5,322. The daily chart formed a shooting star candlestick with a longer upper shadow, suggesting a bullish bias for today’s trading.

Intraday resistance levels are near $5,380, $5,390, $5,420, and $5,440. Support levels are situated around $5,320, $5,300, $5,280, and $5,265.