Recent gains in A-shares are less about index movement and more about the market's internal structure, as technology has again taken center stage. The rationale behind this tech comeback can be broken down into three layers. First, there is the reallocation triggered by a clearing of crowded trades. Earlier expectations of rising discount rates and rate hikes weighed on high-valuation growth names, leading to a round of deleveraging and sector rotation within tech. With the Federal Reserve's decision now fully priced in and with signs of firmer pricing and orders in certain hardware segments, capital is again flowing into tech sub-sectors with visible earnings momentum, rather than staying parked in high-flying resource plays and defensive areas.

Second, the relative strength of the tech-heavy STAR Market against the broader board suggests that in a sluggish overall market, investors prefer hard-tech beta rather than a broad risk-on move across all sectors. Third, the sector leadership of electronics and telecommunications, alongside profit-taking in resources and some cyclical stocks, indicates that industry-level earnings momentum is now offsetting the macro-driven trading narrative. The strongest industrial anchor for the current tech rally is optical communications and the AI computing chain. The recent Optical Fiber Communication Conference has brought the story closer to near-term execution, with 1.6T modules becoming the mainstream display theme and next-generation optical interconnect technologies like NPO, silicon photonics, OCS, and PIC/EIC accelerating in development. With overseas AI capital expenditure still robust and optical modules upgrading to higher speeds, market consensus is strengthening around a cyclical recovery for optical modules, PCBs, CCL, and electronic fabrics.

Digging deeper, the tech rally is shifting from conceptual hype to earnings-based stock selection. Traditional pluggable optical modules remain the mainstay for data center interconnect, while ELS, NPO, and CPO offer a medium-term second growth curve. Excess returns are increasingly concentrated in leaders with clear order momentum, capacity expansion, and strong technology positioning. The relative strength of the STAR Market may indicate that capital is beginning to treat hard tech as a mid-cycle earnings asset rather than just a high-volatility trading instrument.

External macro pressure on tech has also eased, with the so-called shoe finally dropping. Since a rate hike had been fully priced in ahead of the meeting, the market's intraday jump-and-fall on the day of the announcement looks more like a profit-taking rebalancing after a known event. While discount-rate concerns remain, the shift from an "unknown hike" to a "known single hike" could allow the tech sector, with its reduced crowding and fresh industry catalysts, to generate relative returns.

In terms of market outlook, the current phase is one of structural repair within a low-volume bottoming process. The core highlight is the tech comeback, driven by the renewed validation of the optical communications and AI hardware chain, pent-up reallocation demand after the earlier correction, and a marginal improvement in risk appetite following the Fed's move. Going forward, three key points deserve close monitoring: whether trading volumes can keep pace with the structural rally, whether electronics, telecoms, and the STAR Market can maintain their relative strength, and whether order and pricing signals continue to confirm the earnings story.

For positioning, the strategy leans toward a balanced growth tilt, with tech serving as the core offensive holding. Several main lines are worth attention. First, the AI computing hardware and optical interconnect direction, covering optical modules, PCBs, CCL, advanced packaging, and related equipment and materials, with the logic resting on an order and capacity validation phase for technological iterations. Second, growth areas with strong earnings visibility such as pharmaceuticals, which serve as a complement to the tech theme. Third, infrastructure and equipment machinery related to computing networks and the "six networks" initiative, with opportunities on pullbacks. Fourth, the financial and dividend-paying sectors, which could serve as a hedge against fluctuations in US Treasury yields and discount rates.

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