U.S. consumers demonstrated unexpected resilience during this year's Black Friday, driving steady retail growth. However, the strong headline figures mask sluggish real purchasing power amid high inflation and deepening economic disparities. While overall spending climbed, consumption patterns revealed a stark "K-shaped" divergence between affluent and lower-income groups, with inflation anxiety and price sensitivity dominating market sentiment.

According to SpendingPulse, which provides data for Mastercard, U.S. retail sales (excluding autos) on Black Friday rose 4.1% year-over-year, outpacing last year's 3.4% growth. Meanwhile, Adobe Analytics highlighted a new trend: generative AI played a pivotal role in the holiday shopping season for the first time, with AI-related traffic to U.S. e-commerce sites skyrocketing 600% YoY.

These figures offer crucial insights for executives, economists, and investors monitoring the holiday season. On one hand, they show consumers continue spending despite high borrowing costs and job market uncertainty. On the other, analysts note sales growth was largely fueled by higher prices rather than increased volumes. Adjusted for inflation, real spending growth appears minimal, signaling more cautious purchasing behavior.

As the shopping season progresses, attention shifts to whether consumers can sustain this spending level. The current landscape reflects both macroeconomic volatility and structural contradictions—wealthy asset owners splurge freely while wage-dependent households tighten budgets to cope with cost-of-living pressures.

**AI-Powered E-Commerce Boom** This year marked generative AI's debut in consumer shopping decisions. Adobe Analytics data shows shoppers increasingly rely on AI tools from companies like OpenAI and Perplexity for product research and price comparisons. Beyond the 600% traffic surge, 48% of surveyed consumers plan to use AI for online shopping assistance.

E-commerce emerged as the primary growth driver, with online spending hitting $11.8 billion (up 9.1% YoY). Mastercard reported similar trends, with online sales jumping 10.4% versus just 1.7% for physical stores. Shopify merchants processed nearly $2.8 million per minute by Friday evening. Adobe's lead analyst Vivek Pandya noted deeper Thanksgiving discounts fueled the online surge.

**"K-Shaped" Economic Divide** Beneath positive aggregates, data reveals a pronounced economic split. CNN cited the Fed's Beige Book, showing declining spending among low- and middle-income consumers while high earners splurge on luxury and travel. "Affluent shoppers spend freely, but others are budgeting meticulously," said consumer expert Claudia Lombana.

Rick Newman of *The Pinpoint Press* estimates real spending growth at just ~1% after adjusting for 3% inflation. For asset-light households, rent hikes outpacing wages and elevated utility/food costs force austerity in gift and essential purchases.

**Inflation Shadows & Tariff Fears** Price remains the decisive factor. NRF data shows 85% of consumers expect further inflation from potential Trump-era tariffs. Though shoppers don't itemize tariff costs, Newman notes it's a psychological burden. Discount retailers like Walmart, TJ Maxx, and Gap thrive by helping stretch budgets, while Target and Bath & Body Works face weaker foot traffic.

**Credit Strain & Outlook** "Buy Now, Pay Later" usage surged, with Adobe projecting $20.2 billion in holiday transactions (up 11% YoY), signaling cashflow stress. Still, Mastercard's Michelle Meyer emphasized, "This confirms consumers retain spending capacity." All eyes now turn to Cyber Monday, forecast to hit $14.2 billion (up 6.3%). NRF expects holiday sales to grow 3.7%-4.2%, potentially topping $1 trillion—but driven more by price hikes than demand.