Abstract

Garrett Motion Inc. will report its fourth-quarter results on February 19, 2026 Pre-Market; current models point to $875.16 million in revenue and $0.36 EPS as investors watch how mix, pricing, and cost pass-through shape margins and whether recent execution momentum can be sustained.

Market Forecast

The current quarter outlook for Garrett Motion Inc. is anchored by revenue of $875.16 million, implying year-over-year growth of 1.70%, EBIT of $126.50 million with year-over-year growth of 9.05%, and EPS of $0.36 with year-over-year growth of 32.27%. Consensus margin forecasts are not explicitly provided; investors will infer gross and net profitability trajectories from last quarter’s baselines and management commentary when reported.

Within the company’s commercial portfolio, total sales are set to be paced by original equipment and aftermarket demand, with a stable pricing framework and maturing platform launches positioning revenue to edge higher. The most promising earnings contribution appears concentrated in the higher-margin aftermarket stream at $116.00 million last quarter, where stable demand patterns and pricing discipline can offer incremental uplift if volumes track in line.

Last Quarter Review

Garrett Motion Inc. delivered solid prior-quarter results with revenue of $902.00 million, a gross profit margin of 20.62%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $77.00 million, a net profit margin of 8.54%, and adjusted EPS of $0.38, reflecting year-over-year EPS growth of 58.33% and revenue growth of 9.20%.

A notable financial highlight was the breadth of outperformance versus models: revenue surpassed expectations by $36.67 million while EBIT topped by $7.17 million and EPS exceeded by $0.05, illustrating disciplined execution and cost control. On mix, last quarter sales were distributed across the following categories: Natural Gas $405.00 million, Diesel Engines $201.00 million, Commercial Vehicles $164.00 million, Aftermarket $116.00 million, and Other $16.00 million; this profile underscores the scale of core OEM channels and the supportive contribution of aftermarket to gross margin quality.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core OEM Programs and Platform Deliveries

The primary revenue engine for Garrett Motion Inc. remains its original equipment programs, and the current quarter’s modeling points to $875.16 million in sales, or a year-over-year advance of 1.70%. The recent quarter’s result of $902.00 million provided a higher base, suggesting seasonality and production schedules are likely to temper sequential momentum while still allowing year-over-year growth to remain positive. The mix within OEM channels matters for margin capture; last quarter’s composition showed substantial revenue tied to Natural Gas ($405.00 million) and Diesel Engines ($201.00 million), supplemented with Commercial Vehicles ($164.00 million). If platform launches tilt toward higher-content or more resilient regional builds, incremental pricing can be realized without sacrificing share, while contractual escalators may help offset residual inflation.

Cost pass-through dynamics and procurement efficiency are central to sustaining the 20.62% gross margin baseline into the print. Where raw material and logistics have normalized, the benefit can flow through dollar gross profit so long as realized pricing holds and volume schedules remain intact. We would expect EBIT cadence to mirror these puts and takes; the quarter’s EBIT estimate of $126.50 million implies 9.05% year-over-year growth, consistent with modest efficiency gains, stable overhead absorption, and disciplined operating expense management. Net margin sizing will depend on below-the-line items and tax rate, but a steady net-income conversion near recent levels could be consistent with the 32.27% year-over-year EPS uplift projected to $0.36.

Working capital trends can amplify or moderate equity market reactions even when headline results track expectations. If receivables collections and inventory management trend positively alongside the revenue beat-or-meet scenario, free cash flow conversion may come in better than feared, supporting sentiment. Conversely, if OEM schedules or regional shipping pushes defer revenue recognition and elevate inventories, it could cap multiple expansion near-term even with in-line top-line delivery. In our view, the setup leans toward a stable-to-constructive print and guide framework given the recent surprise record and ongoing EBIT discipline embedded in the models.

Aftermarket Momentum and Margin Mix

Aftermarket stood at $116.00 million last quarter, providing a buffer to overall margin quality and smoothing through OEM production variability. The importance of this contribution goes beyond revenue; aftermarket typically carries higher gross margin, helping underpin the last quarter’s 20.62% gross margin and 8.54% net margin outcomes. In the current quarter’s context, even modest aftermarket growth can disproportionately support EBIT and EPS given fixed-cost leverage and favorable pricing mechanics in replacement channels.

The durability of aftermarket demand ties to vehicle parc dynamics and turbocharger replacement intervals, which generally exhibit less cyclicality than new vehicle production. Pricing measures enacted in prior quarters can still be flowing through, and where distribution networks remain tight, mix can skew toward premium SKUs. If supply chain punctuality stays firm, the margin impact could be additive, particularly if the mix tilts away from lower-margin channel partners and toward direct or higher-value offerings. This supports the EPS estimate of $0.36, which assumes better year-over-year profitability despite limited year-over-year revenue expansion.

From a valuation perspective, investors often assign supportive multiples to stable, margin-accretive aftermarket streams. Hence, any incremental disclosure on attach rates, SKU expansion, or channel inventory normalization will be important for post-print trading. Should the company reiterate healthy aftermarket order patterns into the next quarter, it may become a counterbalance to any temporary OEM softness, contributing to steadier gross and net margin profiles. Given these dynamics, we view aftermarket as the most promising internal lever for sustaining margins and protecting EBITDA if OEM schedules normalize lower than anticipated.

Quarter-Specific Stock Price Drivers

The stock’s reaction around the event should be most sensitive to four variables: the headline revenue trajectory relative to $875.16 million; the direction of gross margin versus last quarter’s 20.62% baseline; the sustainability of EBIT at $126.50 million; and the quality of EPS delivery at $0.36. A beat on revenue paired with stable-to-up gross margin would likely be interpreted constructively, particularly if it comes alongside evidence that aftermarket remains solid and OEM launches are tracking. If revenue is in line but EBIT and EPS are supported by cost actions and mix, equity markets may still respond positively given the demonstrated ability to expand profit per dollar of sales.

On the other hand, a shortfall in revenue accompanied by a dip in gross margin would raise concerns about mix and pricing elasticity—especially if aftermarket fails to offset OEM variability. Investors will also parse commentary for visibility on near-term schedules and inventory levels across end channels, as indications of destocking or platform delays could weigh on forward estimates even if the reported quarter is clean. Non-operating items could add noise, but the focus remains on core profitability conversion and the consistency of cash generation.

Sequential trends will also be scrutinized. Last quarter’s net profit declined quarter-on-quarter by 11.49%, which sets a conservative sequential base. If the company arrests that quarter-on-quarter drift while maintaining the year-over-year slope implied by EPS and EBIT estimates, sentiment could brighten. Conversely, further sequential pressure without clear mitigation through cost and mix could keep shares range-bound. We believe the balance of probabilities points to an outcome aligned with the published estimates: modest top-line growth, supported EBIT, and EPS uplift, driven in part by mix and operational steadiness.

Analyst Opinions

Across the limited visible institutional signals in the January 1, 2026 to February 12, 2026 window, the balance of indications leans bullish rather than bearish. A notable data point is the disclosure of institutional ownership by BlackRock, which is commonly interpreted by market participants as supportive of the equity story and liquidity profile. Absent any identified downgrades or negative preview notes in the period, we assess the skew as majority positive, and we analyze that stance here.

The bullish case emphasizes the consistency embedded in the current-quarter modeling: revenue expected at $875.16 million (+1.70% year-over-year), EBIT at $126.50 million (+9.05% year-over-year), and EPS at $0.36 (+32.27% year-over-year). This configuration suggests profit conversion continues to improve on a year-over-year basis even as top-line growth is modest. The prior-quarter performance, which exceeded revenue expectations by $36.67 million and EPS by $0.05, reinforces confidence that execution discipline can deliver in-line to better results if end-market schedules follow plan.

Supportive investors also point to the margin quality mix, with aftermarket’s $116.00 million last quarter offering protective gross margin attributes. When combined with continuing OEM program deliveries, this dual-engine model can insulate against episodic volume shifts. If gross margin holds near the 20.62% baseline and net margin remains in the high single digits, the stock could re-rate modestly on evidence of durable conversion and capital return capacity once quarterly cash generation is visible.

In our assessment of the majority view, the crux of optimism is less about aggressive top-line acceleration and more about dependable profitability and cash generation. The EBIT estimate of $126.50 million indicates scope for operating leverage and cost control to remain in place. If EPS lands near $0.36 with healthy free cash flow conversion signaled in management remarks, the investment case can remain intact with upside optionality to incremental volume or pricing. Coupled with indications of steady institutional engagement and no visible negative rating moves in the period, this frames a constructive skew into the print.