Abstract

Hillman Solutions Corp. will report its quarterly results on February 17, 2026 Pre-Market, and this preview highlights expected revenue growth, profitability trends, and analyst sentiment alongside the company’s guidance and business-mix dynamics.

Market Forecast

Market consensus for Hillman Solutions Corp.’s current quarter points to revenue of $371.43 million, adjusted EPS of $0.096, and EBIT of $16.74 million, implying year-over-year growth of 6.04% in revenue and a 9.49% decline in EPS; EBIT is forecast to decline 17.74% year over year. YoY metrics indicate margin pressure this quarter versus a strong prior-year comparison, while revenue growth is underpinned by core demand in home improvement and hardware distribution. The main business remains anchored by fasteners and hardware, with management’s recent trends suggesting sustained volume resilience and steady demand from big-box retail partners. The most promising segment is fasteners and hardware at $282.44 million last quarter; segment momentum appears supported by continued retail sell-through, though pricing tailwinds are moderating year over year.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Hillman Solutions Corp. reported revenue of $424.94 million, gross profit margin of 51.67%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $23.19 million with a net profit margin of 5.46%, and adjusted EPS of $0.22, reflecting a 8.05% YoY gain in revenue and a 37.50% YoY increase in EPS. Net income rose quarter on quarter by 46.49%, highlighting both operating leverage and cost discipline. By business, fasteners and hardware generated $282.44 million, personal protective equipment contributed $81.33 million, keys and key accessories delivered $51.33 million, and engraving and sharpening added $9.85 million, with growth driven by the core hardware category on solid retail channel performance.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business momentum and revenue trajectory

The current quarter’s revenue is projected at $371.43 million, indicating mid-single-digit growth at 6.04% year over year. This pace suggests normalized seasonality following a stronger prior quarter and some easing of post-pandemic price realizations, while volume trends appear stable supported by key retail relationships. With the previous quarter’s gross margin at 51.67%, investors will watch whether procurement savings and logistics normalization can offset a less favorable mix. The forecast decline in EPS and EBIT implies that operating expense timing and continued investments in service levels and in-store programs could weigh on margins, even as top-line trends remain constructive.

Fasteners and hardware as the growth anchor

Fasteners and hardware remains Hillman Solutions Corp.’s largest revenue engine at $282.44 million last quarter, and it is the segment best positioned to drive sustained growth given broad SKU assortments and replenishment programs. Retailer inventory positions and point-of-sale data typically correlate with replenishment volumes; the recent performance suggests steady demand even as certain discretionary categories soften. Key variables this quarter include the pace of replenishment orders ahead of the spring selling season and the balance between private-label and branded mix, which can affect gross margin capture. A stable pricing environment versus the prior year, combined with lower freight and input costs, may support segment margin even if unit growth is modest.

Key price drivers: margins, cost structure, and mix

The projected 17.74% decline in EBIT and 9.49% decline in EPS year over year point to pressure on operating margins despite revenue growth. Factors likely influencing this include elevated labor and service costs tied to in-store merchandising, the timing of promotional support for retail partners, and potential mix shifts toward lower-margin categories. Investors should focus on gross profit conversion relative to the prior quarter’s 51.67% gross margin, as resilience here could temper the EPS compression. Working capital cadence is another swing factor: if replenishment timing tightens, it may increase logistics intensity short term, impacting expense ratios, though it could set up a volume recovery into the spring.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent previews, the majority of analysts appear constructive, leaning bullish on Hillman Solutions Corp. given resilient revenue growth expectations and improving sell-through trends at key retail partners, although margin pressure is acknowledged as a near-term risk. Positive commentary generally highlights the company’s cash flow trajectory and operational efficiencies, with an expectation that year-over-year margin comparisons become easier in the second half as cost headwinds abate. Institutions emphasizing a positive stance cite the durability of the fasteners and hardware category and the benefits of normalized freight, while cautionary voices point to EPS sensitivity to mix and promotional intensity. Considering the balance of views, the bullish camp holds the majority, anticipating that consistent revenue growth and stable channel demand will support the shares into and through the print.