Next year will be a critical period for China's auto industry to separate the wheat from the chaff.

As 2025 nears its end, competition in the auto sector remains intense, with deeper reshuffling underway. Following the release of GEELY AUTO's earnings report yesterday, major automakers have unveiled their Q3 "report cards." These reports reflect not just profits and losses but also offer a concentrated insight into industry trends—highlighting warnings from GWMOTOR Chairman Wei Jianjun and concerns raised by GEELY AUTO Group CEO Li Donghui.

Overall, the Q3 2025 earnings reports of nine automakers reveal a clear polarization. Some companies performed strongly, while others struggled. SAIC Motor, Chery, Changan Automobile, and GEELY AUTO reported both revenue and profit growth, demonstrating robust competitiveness and operational efficiency. SERES and GWMOTOR saw revenue growth without corresponding profit increases, likely due to cost pressures and intensified competition. Dongfeng Motor managed profit growth despite revenue challenges, finding a breakthrough. Meanwhile, GAC Group and BAIC BluePark continued to post losses, signaling operational difficulties.

Industry experts note that automakers will collectively face challenges next year, not just isolated cases. Year-end subsidy policies drove a surge in sales, but this has partly depleted next year's demand, leaving excess inventory at dealerships. Even leading players are struggling to sustain sales growth.

"China's annual auto demand stands at just over 30 million units, while production capacity exceeds 60 million, creating severe overcapacity. Export reliance is inevitable, but international competition and trade barriers pose significant hurdles," the experts added.

**Highlights from Nine Carmakers’ Q3 Reports: Mixed Fortunes**

SERES reported Q3 revenue of RMB 48.133 billion, up 15.75% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell 1.74% to RMB 2.371 billion, reflecting revenue growth without profit gains.

GWMOTOR posted Q3 revenue of RMB 61.247 billion (+20.51% YoY), but net profit dropped 31.23% to RMB 2.298 billion, attributed to strategic investments in R&D and channel expansion.

BAIC BluePark, the NEV arm of BAIC Group, narrowed losses significantly, with Q3 revenue dipping 3.45% to RMB 5.867 billion and net loss shrinking 41.77% to RMB -1.118 billion, signaling operational improvements.

BYD, the global NEV leader, saw Q3 revenue decline 3.05% to RMB 194.985 billion, with net profit down 32.60% to RMB 7.823 billion, partly due to soaring R&D costs (RMB 43.75 billion in Jan-Sept, +31.3% YoY).

GAC Group faced challenges, with Q3 revenue down 14.62% YoY to RMB 24.318 billion and net loss widening 27.02% to RMB -1.774 billion.

SAIC Motor delivered strong results: Q3 revenue rose 16.19% to RMB 169.403 billion, while net profit skyrocketed 644.88% to RMB 2.083 billion, driven by its "new troika" strategy—own brands, NEVs, and overseas markets.

Chery’s Q3 revenue grew 17.94% to RMB 214.833 billion, with net profit up 28% to RMB 14.365 billion, supported by cost controls and strong NEV sales.

Changan Automobile reported Q3 revenue of RMB 42.236 billion (+23.36% YoY), though net profit edged up just 2.13% to RMB 764 million amid soaring marketing expenses (+56.25% Jan-Sept).

GEELY AUTO hit a record Q3 revenue of RMB 89.2 billion (+27% YoY), with core net profit up 19% to RMB 3.96 billion. It sold 2.477 million vehicles by October, achieving 82.6% of its annual target.

**Survival of the Fittest: Industry at a Crossroads** The reports underscore that China's auto sector has entered a phase of "expansion vs. cost control," where overseas growth and R&D investments will be decisive.

"Next year will be pivotal. Without strong profitability, survival will be tough," warned GEELY AUTO’s Li Donghui during the earnings call. He noted that despite policy support and sales growth, few NEV startups are profitable.

Earlier, GWMOTOR’s Wei Jianjun highlighted the lack of a sustainable business model for EVs, cautioning against long-term subsidy reliance.

As government support wanes, market forces will dominate—a sign of industry maturity but also a survival test for weaker players.

Key trends identified: 1. Widening divergence between leaders and laggards. 2. Dual pressures of competition and rising costs. 3. Heavy R&D spending for long-term gains. 4. Overseas markets as a new growth engine.

In this transformative era, no automaker can remain complacent. Strategic resilience will determine who thrives in the final showdown.