According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on August 26. The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission monitored that during this round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (August 12-August 25), international oil prices first declined and then rose.

The specific details of this oil price adjustment are as follows: Starting from 24:00 on August 26, gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 180 yuan/ton and 175 yuan/ton respectively. On a national average basis: 92-octane gasoline will decrease by 0.14 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline will decrease by 0.15 yuan per liter, and No. 0 diesel will decrease by 0.15 yuan per liter. For consumers, filling up a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will save 7 yuan.

**Price Monitoring Center Analysis: International Oil Prices Rose After Initial Decline**

During the adjustment cycle, influenced by multiple intertwined factors, international oil prices showed a trend of first declining then rising, with average levels lower than the previous adjustment cycle.

On one hand, expectations of global crude oil market oversupply have intensified. The International Energy Agency downgraded its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast in its latest monthly report, while significantly raising its global oil supply growth forecast by 400,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. crude oil production to reach 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, setting a new historical record. Additionally, U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to increase substantially in the fourth quarter.

On the other hand, as the U.S. and Russia engage in talks regarding a peace agreement for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, market sentiment has gradually shifted from optimism to stalemate. During this period, Russia and Ukraine continue to conduct mutual air strikes, and escalating geopolitical risks have driven oil prices higher.

The Price Monitoring Center believes that as the summer driving season approaches its end, oil demand is expected to gradually weaken. Combined with increased production from "OPEC+" and growing U.S. crude oil output, the global crude oil market will continue to maintain an oversupply pattern. In the short term, uncertainties in the geopolitical situation will increase oil price volatility.