周四(6月19日),光伏股全线走低,协鑫新能源跌近7%,北京能源国际、福莱特玻璃、信义光能、信义能源跌约4%,光伏产业链价格持续下行。
消息面上,据索比资询,SNEC展会带动分布式询单回暖,但实际成交价未上涨。玻璃等辅材价格下跌,为降价提供空间。当前市场正处于“后抢装潮”的供需再平衡阶段,短期内组件价格将延续阴跌与分化趋势。山西证券指出,光伏展后多晶硅签单数量较少,成交价格再度下滑。本周价格下降,一方面因为下游硅片产品价格下跌对上游降价预期增强;另一方面,硅料企业本月逐渐开始产能置换,短期产量有所增加。预计短期硅料价格仍有下行压力,Q3产量下降后价格有望逐步企稳。
东兴证券指出,新政驱动了“531”光伏抢装,边际上带动Q1产业链上下游各环节的利润修复。但由于抢装是下半年的需求前置,新政实施后,电价的不确定性叠加整体上网均价的下降预期,或使得下半年分布式项目投资意愿大幅下降,且当前来看,整体产业链仍处于产能过剩的大格局之下,在需求没有大幅增长的背景下,落后产能出清尚待时日,产业链利润修复的力度和持续性仍有待观察。
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