International oil prices surged following attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, with Brent crude opening up 13% on Monday to reach $82 per barrel. Reports indicate that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in the attacks. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced on the evening of the 28th that it was prohibiting any vessel from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Sources suggest that as traffic of tankers and other ships through the Strait has ceased, the waterway is effectively closed.
Analysts from Barclays stated in a note on Saturday that "oil markets may have to face the worst-case scenario on Monday. Given the current situation, we believe Brent crude prices could potentially reach $100 per barrel. The potential impact on oil markets cannot be overstated."
According to comprehensive reports, Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran on the afternoon of February 28th, code-named "Roaring Lion," aimed at eliminating threats to Israel. An Israeli government official stated that Israel is preparing for an initial four-day phase of intensive and powerful joint offensive operations. The US military also anticipates multi-day operations against Iran. US President Trump stated on March 1st that military action against Iran could last approximately four weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, in a speech, indicated that the intensity of Israeli strikes on Iran would increase in the coming days.
The death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has escalated the situation beyond expectations, not only because the joint US-Israeli attack on OPEC member Iran continues to unsettle global markets, but also due to the potential for severe disruption of Middle Eastern oil supplies. The Islamic Republic of Iran produces approximately 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for 3% of global production and making it OPEC's fourth-largest producer. However, due to its strategic geographic location, its influence on global energy supplies far exceeds its production volume. Iran is situated along the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's crude oil is transported, primarily from key suppliers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Real-time data from international tanker traffic monitoring systems shows that the sailing speeds of tankers in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz have generally dropped to zero, indicating that shipping in the region has stalled. Furthermore, media tracking data indicates that although the Strait remains open, some tankers have chosen alternative routes following the attacks, causing vessel congestion on both sides of the Strait's entrance.
Prior to this, oil markets had long been dismissive of the risk of Middle Eastern oil supply disruptions. Bob McNally, an analyst at Rapidan Energy and former energy advisor to President George W. Bush, stated that traders are underestimating the threat posed by potential retaliatory actions from Iran. McNally suggested that Iran might attempt to intimidate President Trump by jeopardizing commercial navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz, which could drive oil prices above $100 per barrel. He added that the market does not fully appreciate Tehran's significant stockpiles of naval mines and short-range missiles, weapons that could severely disrupt traffic in the waterway. According to McNally, only a small portion of the crude oil typically transiting the Strait of Hormuz could be rerouted. Saudi Arabia possesses an oil pipeline crossing the country from east to west, connecting to the Red Sea coast. The UAE also has a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, ending in the Gulf of Oman.
In a recent research report released on Saturday, Barclays analysts warned that global oil markets could reach a significant turning point on Monday, with market risk sentiment rapidly intensifying and introducing new uncertainties to international oil price trends. The report noted that, influenced by a combination of tightening supply, rising geopolitical risks, and increased speculative sentiment, the crude oil market is in a highly sensitive phase. Analysts stated, "Oil markets may have to face the worst-case scenario on Monday." Based on an assessment of the current market environment, Barclays believes there is a possibility for Brent crude prices to rise to $100 per barrel. The analysts emphasized that once prices reach or surpass this key psychological level, the impact would extend far beyond the energy sector itself. "The potential impact on oil markets cannot be overstated," the report said.
The report also pointed out that current market focus is concentrated on the stability of crude oil supply, changes in inventory levels, and policy movements of major oil-producing countries. If supply disruptions persist or demand expectations improve, the upward momentum for oil prices could strengthen further. Simultaneously, shifts in financial market capital flows and changes in speculative positions could amplify short-term price volatility.
Industry insiders believe that if Brent crude stabilizes above the $100 per barrel mark, it could trigger a revaluation of the energy sector and drive correlated increases in prices of related commodities. Market participants widely anticipate that the next few trading sessions will be a critical window for determining the medium-term trend of oil prices. Investors are closely watching post-opening trading performance, along with upcoming inventory data and macroeconomic signals, to assess whether oil prices are entering a new upward cycle.
Related concept stocks: PETROCHINA (00857): In the first three quarters of 2025, the company processed 1,040.6 million barrels of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%; produced 6.688 million tonnes of ethylene, up 5.2% year-on-year; and produced 29.59 million tonnes of marketable chemical products, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year. The refining, chemical, and new materials segment continued to optimize facility operations and product mix, deeply advancing transformation and upgrading, gradually moving towards the mid-to-high end of the refining-chemicals-new materials industrial chain, achieving an operating profit of RMB 16.240 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.28%. Specifically, the refining business achieved an operating profit of RMB 14.453 billion, up 22.68% year-on-year, while the chemical business achieved an operating profit of RMB 1.787 billion, down 48.93% year-on-year, mainly due to lower prices for most chemical products and narrowed profit margins. CNOOC (00883): The company's oil and gas production has grown rapidly. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for its crude oil production from 2021 to 2024 was 8.0%, and the CAGR for natural gas production was 10.5%. The company's projected production growth rates for 2025-2027 are 5.9%, 2.6%, and 3.8% respectively, indicating a trend towards stabilization in future growth. In 2024, the company's oil and gas equivalent reserves were 7.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and the cash flow value of these reserves remains undervalued. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's main cost per barrel of oil was $27.35, down 2.8% year-on-year. This cost is significantly lower than PETROCHINA and Sinopec domestically, and lower than ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell internationally, demonstrating strong international competitiveness.