Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (02208) has demonstrated strong performance across onshore, offshore, and overseas wind power markets. As a leading player in the sector, the company has achieved significant growth in domestic and international orders amid favorable market conditions. With stabilizing turbine order prices and an increasing proportion of high-margin overseas business, its earnings are projected to sustain recovery.

The company’s net profit for 2025/2026/2027 is forecasted at RMB 3.46 billion, RMB 4.51 billion, and RMB 5.81 billion, representing year-on-year growth of +86%, +30%, and +29%, respectively. EPS is estimated at RMB 0.82, RMB 1.07, and RMB 1.38, with H-shares trading at P/E multiples of 14x, 11x, and 8.5x for the respective years. A "Buy" rating is maintained, with a target price of HK$17.

**Key Highlights:** - **Q3 2025 Performance:** Revenue reached RMB 196.1 billion (+25.4% YoY), with net profit surging 170.6% YoY to RMB 1.097 billion (non-GAAP: RMB 1.05 billion, +160.5% YoY). EPS stood at RMB 0.25. - **Order Growth:** Q3 turbine sales volume rose 71% YoY to 7,809 MW, while cumulative sales for the first nine months hit 18,449.7 MW (+91% YoY). Total order backlog reached 49.9 GW by end-September (+20.6% YoY), including 7.16 GW overseas (14.3% share). Orders for 6MW+ turbines accounted for 83%. - **Margin Improvement:** Q3 gross margin improved to 13% (+0.84 ppts QoQ), supported by stable turbine prices and higher overseas contributions. Average bidding prices rose 9.2% YoY to RMB 1,610/kW in September. - **Cost Efficiency:** Three expense ratios declined by 3.4 ppts YoY, driven by economies of scale and cost optimization.

**Industry Outlook:** China’s wind power installations totaled 61.09 GW in Jan-Sep 2025 (+56% YoY), with full-year installations expected at ~110 GW (+39% YoY). Despite a 14.3% YoY drop in tenders to 102 GW, post-bidding IRR remains attractive (>8%), suggesting a Q4 rebound. The sector is projected to maintain double-digit growth in 2026.

The *Beijing Wind Energy Declaration 2.0* targets annual additions of ≥120 GW during the 16th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), including ≥15 GW offshore, aiming for 1,300 GW cumulative capacity by 2030. This implies a doubling of annual installations compared to the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

**Earnings Forecast:** Goldwind’s robust order book and margin recovery underpin the upward revision in profit estimates, with sustained growth anticipated in the coming years.