The global PC market is confronting a dual crisis of memory supply shortages and rising prices. Analysts from Goldman Sachs have issued a warning that structural memory shortages will constrain PC supply and drive up final selling prices, potentially leading to a significant decline in worldwide PC shipments by 2026.

In a recent report, Goldman Sachs analyst Katherine Murphy highlighted that "structural supply shortages" in the memory market will limit PC manufacturing capacity and compel vendors to increase prices to protect their already thin profit margins. She forecasts that global PC shipments will drop approximately 12% year-over-year in 2026 to 245 million units. Consumer PC shipments are expected to fall 15% to 108 million units, while commercial PC shipments are projected to decline 9% to 137 million units.

This outlook places direct pressure on the entire PC supply chain. Shipments from Dell and HP are anticipated to decrease by a high-single-digit to low-double-digit percentage. In contrast, Apple is poised to achieve modest growth, supported by the launch of new products, including an entry-level MacBook Neo. For consumers, price increases for PCs appear almost inevitable.

The cost contribution of DRAM and NAND memory has doubled, severely compressing manufacturer profit margins. Murphy's report details the impact of rising memory costs on PC manufacturing expenses. Under normal market conditions, DRAM and NAND components typically account for about 20% of a PC's total bill of materials. However, under current pricing structures, this proportion has surged to around 40%, representing unprecedented cost pressure.

To counter high component costs, PC manufacturers primarily have three strategies: directly raising product prices, reducing promotional discounts, or steering consumers toward higher-priced models through product mix adjustments. Regardless of the approach, the result is increased purchasing costs for consumers.

The sharp volatility in memory prices is already evident in the spot market. According to data from price-tracking website CamelCamelCamel, the Amazon price for a Crucial Pro DDR5 64GB memory kit was approximately $150 in early autumn 2025. It then experienced a steep climb and has remained near $740 for much of this year, a surge of nearly 400%.

Technology media outlet Tom's Hardware has also warned that sustained high memory prices are affecting the broader consumer electronics supply chain, with the PC market being particularly impacted. Goldman Sachs has previously issued multiple warnings about memory shortages, characterizing them as a new global technology supply chain bottleneck following AI computing capacity constraints.

The consumer PC segment is bearing the brunt of the impact, though the commercial market is not immune. Murphy predicts a 15% year-over-year decline in consumer PC shipments, higher than the 9% drop forecast for commercial PCs. This reflects the greater price sensitivity and higher demand elasticity of individual consumers.

While the commercial PC market shows more resilience, it still faces pressure from both supply constraints and rising costs. For investors, the profit outlook for traditional PC giants like Dell and HP is clouded with greater uncertainty. Apple, however, may demonstrate relative resilience in the challenging environment, aided by its new product cycle. Overall, the fundamental pressures on the 2026 PC market are significant, and the timeline for an industry recovery remains highly uncertain.