The WTO Public Forum is being held on September 17-18 in Geneva, Switzerland. This annual exchange platform, open to the public by the international organization, explores different trade-related topics each year. One of this year's main themes is how to harness the power of digital transformation.
The World Trade Organization has been established for 30 years, during which the international trade landscape and forms have undergone significant changes. However, the WTO remains the world's only international organization addressing international trade rules. Today, millions of packages cross borders daily, and service trade has long transcended national boundaries. Digital trade and artificial intelligence have become hot topics in international trade.
On the first day of the conference, corresponding to the theme of this public forum, the WTO released its latest World Trade Report. The report shows that under proper policy guidance, AI could help achieve nearly 40% growth in the overall value of cross-border goods and services trade by 2024, as artificial intelligence can enhance productivity while reducing trade costs.
Meanwhile, the report indicates that AI could bring substantial growth to trade and GDP before 2040, with international trade's overall value potentially increasing by 34% to 37%. This growth level would vary significantly under different policy support and technological development backgrounds. Global GDP is also expected to achieve 12% to 13% growth.
World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated in the report: "Artificial intelligence has tremendous potential to reduce trade costs and enhance productivity. However, significant gaps remain in countries' access to AI technology and their ability to participate in digital trade."
Director-General Okonjo-Iweala also noted: "With the right combination of trade, investment, and supporting policies, AI can create new growth opportunities for all economies. Under an appropriate framework, trade can play a central role in ensuring AI benefits everyone. The WTO is committed to supporting this process."
WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill acknowledged at a media briefing before the report's release that this year's international trade report comes against a very complex international trade backdrop. Trade policy uncertainty significantly impacts business confidence, investment, and supply chains, with uncertainty remaining an important factor that cannot be ignored in the international trade environment.
"Of course, we still need time to test the multilateral trading system. But many WTO members are still following WTO principles in responding to trade measures, which is definitely a ray of hope," Hill admitted.
She analyzed: "Now, the international trade landscape is changing rapidly, with geopolitics and geo-economics dominating media headlines daily. We also face other trends that are reshaping the future of international economics and trade. Artificial intelligence is definitely one of them."
Not only can AI contribute to international trade volume and economic growth, but trade can also become a powerful driver of inclusive AI. Without international trade, many economies would be unable to access the raw materials needed to develop and use AI. According to the organization's estimates, global trade in these raw materials alone reached $2.3 trillion in 2023.
This year's report focuses more on how the benefits gained from AI and trade are distributed. AI can become a bright spot in an increasingly complex trade environment because it can reduce trade costs, improve production efficiency, and expand participation in international markets. Before 2040, AI could stimulate cross-border goods and services trade growth by nearly 40%. Private sector AI applications also validate this trend.
However, current problems are also evident. The transformative potential brought by AI cannot benefit everyone, as each economy has different AI infrastructure, educational investment, and technological standards.
Hill explained that if low- and middle-income economies could narrow the gap in their digital infrastructure with high-income economies by 50% and more widely adopt AI, these economies' incomes are expected to increase by 15% and 14% respectively. However, if they cannot bridge these gaps, low-income economies might only see an 8% income growth rate.
Additionally, whether AI can bring inclusive growth also depends on the design of trade and trade-related policies, including domestic policies and international cooperation. Hill believes it's necessary not only to promote AI for inclusive trade growth but also to make international trade more affordable.
Hill also acknowledged that AI-related challenges in trade are more complex, involving many supporting policies from infrastructure, energy, and education to government support. Every link is crucial.
The report emphasizes the importance of open and predictable trade policies, noting that restrictive measures on AI-related goods have increased significantly, from 130 items in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, mainly driven by high-income and upper-middle-income economies. In some low-income economies, binding tariffs on AI-related goods can reach up to 45%, making access to these key goods remain unbalanced.
The report also highlights the WTO's role in promoting AI inclusivity and fair benefits. The organization provides members with a forum to discuss AI-related trade measures. The report notes that among the 80 trade-related "concerns" raised at the WTO, all involve AI. Additionally, specialized discussions have been conducted under the WTO's Electronic Commerce Work Programme framework, focusing on AI and inclusive trade. Investing in education and training, and adopting appropriate labor market policies, can help avoid exacerbating inequality within economies.
The report adds that if members could make further commitments, such as expanding participation in the WTO Information Technology Agreement and updating commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, it would help make AI more inclusive and affordable.