Guotai Haitong Securities has released a research report stating that the frequent issuance of pro-consumption policies at the beginning of 2026, alongside the ongoing strategy to expand domestic demand, will accelerate the restoration of consumer confidence and drive the expansion of consumer demand. Third-party payment acquirer companies are expected to benefit from the recovery of offline consumption. Compared to 2025, the 2026 national subsidy program has been optimized in three aspects: the scope of subsidies, subsidy standards, and the implementation mechanism. The main views of Guotai Haitong are as follows:

A significant policy from the State Council aims to boost service consumption. On January 29, 2026, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Areas in Service Consumption," designed to optimize and expand service supply, and promote the quality improvement and benefit to the people of service consumption. The work plan proposes supportive policies in three key areas. First, focusing on key sectors such as transportation services, domestic services, online audio-visual services, travel and residence services, automotive aftermarket services, and inbound consumption, efforts will be made to optimize service supply, promote pilot initiatives, innovate consumption scenarios, and strengthen talent cultivation to stimulate development vitality. Second, targeting potential areas like performance services, sports event services, and experiential/emotional services, measures will be taken to improve incentive mechanisms, optimize safety management, cultivate high-quality brands, and build platform carriers to foster development momentum. Third, support for cultivating new growth areas in service consumption will be strengthened by improving standard systems, enhancing credit systems, and reinforcing fiscal and financial support.

The 2026 national subsidies continue, with optimizations to the "Two New" policies. On December 30, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on the Implementation of Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-In Policies for 2026." Compared to 2025, the 2026 national subsidy program has been optimized in three aspects: the scope of subsidies, subsidy standards, and the implementation mechanism. Simultaneously, to optimize the implementation of the "Two New" policies and meet peak season consumption demand during periods such as New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, the National Development and Reform Commission, in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance, has allocated the first batch of the 2026 plan in advance to local governments, involving 62.5 billion yuan from ultra-long-term special government bonds to support the consumer goods trade-in program.

On December 16, 2025, the Qiushi journal published an article by the General Secretary titled "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move." The article emphasizes that expanding domestic demand relates not only to economic stability but also to economic security; it is not a temporary measure but a strategic initiative. The article points out that implementing the strategy to expand domestic demand is necessary for maintaining the long-term, sustained, and healthy development of China's economy, as well as for meeting the people's growing needs for a better life. It is essential to accelerate efforts to address the shortcomings in domestic demand, particularly in consumption, making domestic demand the main driver and a stabilizing anchor for economic growth. The article also notes that insufficient aggregate demand is a prominent contradiction currently facing economic operations. It calls for resolutely implementing the strategic plan for expanding domestic demand, forming a complete domestic demand system as soon as possible, and focusing on expanding consumption demand supported by income, investment demand with reasonable returns, and financial demand constrained by capital and debt.

Risk warnings: Policy fluctuation risks; risks of policy implementation falling short of expectations; risks of consumer recovery falling short of expectations.