最新全球基金经理调查显示,当前市场对经济衰退的担忧显著消退。根据美国银行7月调查报告,净59%的投资者认为经济衰退不太可能发生,这与4月调查形成鲜明对比——当时净42%的受访者预期可能发生衰退。
经济前景预期呈现三大关键趋势:
1. 软着陆成主流预期:近三分之二(65%)的投资者预测经济将实现软着陆,即在通胀放缓的同时,经济不会出现显著减速
2. 硬着陆担忧锐减:仅9%的受访者预期硬着陆情景,即伴随通胀回落出现经济停滞甚至衰退
3. 市场情绪大逆转:四个月内投资者预期完成从"可能衰退"到"不太可能衰退"的立场转换,反映宏观环境预期根本性转变
此次调查覆盖全球顶级资产管理机构,凸显机构投资者对经济韧性的重新评估。市场共识正转向"通胀受控与经济持续增长并存"的乐观剧本,为风险资产提供重要支撑。
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