In an uncertain macroeconomic cycle, investors need not more variables, but stable structures that can weather cycles. Looking back at the first half of 2025, from AI theme extensions and counter-cyclical performance of gold and crypto assets, to global allocation paths for Chinese yuan assets, the eight core trends proposed by Noah ARK's Chief Investment Officer office in their year-end report have been validated one by one amid market volatility and policy games. This provides a more solid cognitive foundation for the second half of the year.
**Navigating Through Uncertainty: Full Validation of 8 H1 2025 Trends**
**01 Maintaining Global Diversified Investment to Address High Macro Volatility**
*Noah Chief Investment Officer Office View*: Asset allocation in 2025 should continue to emphasize global diversified investment, covering different asset classes and investment strategies.
*Validation*: Following Trump's inauguration and initiation of global tariff wars, the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index soared to near-historic highs since data collection began.
[Chart: 2025 First Half U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Surge] Data Source: Wind; Noah Chief Investment Officer Office. Data as of end of June 2025.
**02 AI Revolution Logic Continues**
*Noah Chief Investment Officer Office View*: The monetary easing cycle has just begun, industrial logic continues to spread and extend, industrial policy support is strengthening. While valuations are not low, earnings support remains strong with limited bubble formation, so AI revolution logic is expected to continue, subsequently extending to downstream applications. The valuation bubble in AI industry has room for further expansion.
*Validation*: Represented by NVIDIA, its financial performance for the first half of fiscal 2025 was impressive, totaling approximately $35.374 billion. The data center business serves as the core pillar. In the first half of 2025, NVIDIA's stock price rebounded significantly after a sharp decline during tariff wars, with cumulative gains of 17.67%.
[Chart: NVIDIA Stock Price Trend in H1 2025] Data Source: Wind; Noah Chief Investment Officer Office. Data as of end of June 2025.
**03 AI Infrastructure Welcomes Growth**
*Noah Chief Investment Officer Office View*: Benefiting from the rise of artificial intelligence and the global energy transition megatrend, digitalization and renewable energy infrastructure are particularly expected to become growth sectors, with data centers and clean energy benefiting long-term.
*Validation*: As AI technology applications expand across industries, the market has generated strong demand for AI infrastructure. Taking the Shenwan Hongyuan Global AI Infrastructure Index (802604.WI) as an example, by the close of June 30, it rose from 4433.22 points at the beginning of the year to 4943.9 points, an increase of 10.64%.
[Chart: Global AI Infrastructure Index Rise in H1 2025] Data Source: Wind; Noah Chief Investment Officer Office. Data as of end of June 2025.
**04 Focus on Quality Credit Strategies in High Interest Rate Environment**
*Noah Chief Investment Officer Office View*: Focus on quality credit strategies. By adopting more protective loan covenants, providing higher security than other types of fixed income, highlighting the periodic allocation opportunities of related strategies in high interest rate environments.
*Validation*: Taking the private credit benchmark CDLI index as an example, as of the end of H1 2025, returns over the past 4 quarters were 10.06%, highlighting allocation opportunities for this strategy in relatively high interest rate environments.
[Chart: U.S. Private Credit Direct Lending Index (CDLI) Continued Upward Trend in H1 2025] Data Source: Wind; Noah Chief Investment Officer Office. Data as of end of June 2025.
**05 Investing in Gold to Enhance Portfolio Anti-fragility**
*Noah Chief Investment Officer Office View*: Through investing in physical gold (such as gold bars, gold coins), gold ETFs, and gold-linked products, portfolio anti-fragility can be enhanced, achieving asset preservation functions.
*Validation*: Taking London gold as an example, by June 30, it rose from 2657.195 points at the beginning of the year to 3302.155 points, an increase of 25.84%.
[Chart: Significant Gold Price Rise in H1 2025] Data Source: Wind; Noah Chief Investment Officer Office. Data as of end of June 2025.
**06 Focus on Cryptocurrency Themes**
*Noah Chief Investment Officer Office View*: Appropriately increase virtual asset allocation, including passive ETFs or multi-strategy cryptocurrency hedge funds, as strategic asset allocation.
*Validation*: Taking Bitcoin as an example, by the close of June 30, it rose from 94591.79 points at the beginning of the year to 107146.5 points, an increase of 14.5%.
[Chart: Bitcoin Price Trend in H1 2025] Data Source: Wind; Noah Chief Investment Officer Office. Data as of end of June 2025.
**07 Global Allocation with Chinese Yuan Assets**
*Noah Chief Investment Officer Office View*: Focus on investing in the United States through one-stop QD combination products, while moderately allocating to growth markets such as Japan, India, and Vietnam.
*Validation*: In the first half of 2025, the S&P 500 rose 5.5%, India's SENSEX30 rose 7%, and Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index rose 8.63%.
[Chart: H1 2025 Performance of S&P 500, India SENSEX30, Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Index] Data Source: Wind; Noah Chief Investment Officer Office. Data as of end of June 2025.
**08 Using Highly Diversified Hedge Fund Strategies**
*Noah Chief Investment Officer Office View*: Looking ahead to 2025, market characteristics may show a trend where alpha returns are easier to obtain than market returns. Highly diversified equity long-short strategies, global macro, multi-strategy, and alternative market trend-following strategies can control risk and achieve good returns when tail risks emerge, reducing overall portfolio volatility risk.
*Validation*: Taking macro strategies, multi-strategies, and equity long-short as examples, in the first half of 2025, macro strategy returns were 5.4%, multi-strategy returns were 5.0%, and equity long-short strategy returns were 6.3%.
[Chart: Excellent Performance of Global Hedge Fund Strategies in H1 2025] Data Source: Wind; Noah Chief Investment Officer Office. Data as of end of June 2025.
**Vision for the Future: Major Release of Core Trends for H2**
Precise judgment stems from deep understanding. Entering the second half of 2025, the global macroeconomic environment remains in violent flux. The prolongation of geopolitical tensions, evolution of technological revolution, and monetary policy divergence interweave, making asset allocation in H2 2025 more dependent on trend insights and structural judgment.
In August 2025, Noah Holdings' Chief Investment Officer Office officially released the "H2 2025 Chief Investment Officer Office Report," continuing its "structural asset allocation" framework and proposing ten core judgments and recommendations covering macro structure, asset themes, and strategic execution.
The report believes we are entering a new capital era dominated by "technological deflation." H2 keywords: technological deflation, dual-track structure, three pillars.
**Theme One: Deflation Dividend Becoming the Dominant Logic**
*Macro "Dual-Track Structure" Formation: Era of Deflation and Inflation Resonance*
The future macroeconomic environment will present a "dual-track structure": on one hand, technological deflationary forces brought by AI, automation, and other technological progress; on the other hand, inflationary pressures continuously brought by structural factors such as fiscal expansion and geopolitical conflicts. The tension between these two will exist long-term in global markets, forming the "background noise" of asset pricing.
*Three-Pillar Allocation Model Becomes Long-term Strategic Anchor*
To address the complex macroeconomic landscape of the "dual-track structure," Noah's Chief Investment Officer Office proposes a "three-pillar allocation" strategy—systematically constructing portfolios with reality anchors, technology engines, and bridge assets:
- Inflation-benefiting assets: gold, infrastructure, defense - Deflation-benefiting assets: AI, digital currencies, green energy - Bridge assets: stablecoin wealth management, short-duration bonds, multi-strategy funds
*"Deflation-Benefiting Assets" Enter Investment Main Axis*
"Deflation-benefiting assets" represented by AI, digital currencies, and green energy are no longer just "emerging themes" but will become the new core of capital inflows, including deployment through primary and secondary markets. It's recommended to increase attention to the NASDAQ 100 Index and Hang Seng Tech Index in portfolios, balancing β growth from China-U.S. AI technology transformation.
Under deflationary backdrop, Bitcoin can become a store of value asset because it possesses clear scarcity and anti-credit inflation capability.
**Theme Two: Policy-Guided Reality Anchor Assets**
*Fiscal Re-expansion Trend Clear*
Represented by the Trump administration's "Make America Great Act," global re-inflation forces are rising. Fiscal spending directions focus on defense, infrastructure, and traditional energy, injecting policy dividends into related industries and reshaping risk preferences and allocation weights. It's recommended to allocate related economy major broad-based index QDII funds, such as QDII funds investing in S&P 500 index, European, Japanese stock indices.
*Tariffs More Targeted on Strategic Commodities*
The Trump administration's tariff policy will no longer be simple across-the-board taxation but more targeted. The final plan may be: "10% basic tariffs" plus "high tariffs" on key strategic commodities like steel and aluminum, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and chips. This strategy aims to use tariff tools to pressure other economies into market access or trade commitments.
*Inflation-Benefiting Assets Still Necessary*
Gold, infrastructure, and defense possess stable cash flows, risk protection, and counter-cyclical functions, making them indispensable as reality anchors. Gold is the safe-haven anchor under traditional market turbulence. Defense-related ETFs focus on core defense suppliers and have high predictability and policy insensitivity due to long-term contract mechanisms and budget lock-ins, making them quality "Make America Great Act" policy dividend assets.
Infrastructure investment and publicly traded Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) represented baseline strategies mostly possess cycle-crossing attributes.
**Theme Three: Bridge Assets Buffer Volatility**
*"Low-Correlation Strategy Combinations" Spanning Dual-Engine Narratives*
The Chief Investment Officer office recommends strengthening "low-correlation strategy combinations" in alternative investments—such as short-duration bonds, quantitative multi-strategy investments, and volatility-neutral assets to hedge systematic equity risk shocks.
One category is "volatility receivers"—neutral mixed strategy investment portfolios targeting absolute returns; another is "crisis alpha"—CTA strategy and macro strategy investment portfolios expected to perform counter-cyclically when tail risks emerge.
*Stablecoins Upgrade to Global Sovereign Financial Infrastructure*
With the implementation of the "Genius Act" and advancement of Hong Kong's regulatory sandbox, stablecoins can solve pain points in traditional finance regarding efficiency, cost, and trust mechanisms through technological innovation, gradually becoming key bridges connecting traditional finance and decentralized finance (DeFi). Their development path has moved from single collateral to multi-dimensional balance, continuously driving paradigm shifts in global financial infrastructure.
**Theme Four: Three-Pillar Flexible Allocation to Address Volatility**
*Three-Pillar Allocation Model Coordinates with Market Adjustments*
The three-pillar model emphasizes both cyclical defense and future dividend capture, serving as a portfolio "stabilizer" in high-volatility cycles.
- When geopolitical risks heat up or inflation expectations rise → increase allocation to inflation-type assets - When interest rates peak or valuations correct → increase allocation to deflation-type assets - When volatility intensifies or liquidity tightens → increase allocation to bridge assets and cash positions
**Theme Five: Structural Design Creates Anti-Risk Wealth Systems**
*Structural Changes Call for "Wealth Architecture" Redesign*
Macroeconomic logic revaluation affects not only assets but wealth vehicles themselves. It's recommended that investors consider identity planning and architectural design synergistically to create anti-risk, inheritable wealth systems.
**Recognize Structure, Steadily See the Future**
Facing the "dual engines" of inflation and deflation and "dual-track switching" between reality and technology, Noah believes that what's truly trustworthy is never the next trend but structural strategies that can see the future.
From the three-pillar allocation model to wealth architecture redesign, the "H2 2025 Chief Investment Officer Report" is not only strategic recommendations but a starting point for cognitive upgrades. We hope this report can help every investor find their own long-term anchor point in cycles of deep structural change.
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**[Disclaimer]** 1. All views in this article do not constitute any investment advice. You still need to make your investment decisions based on your independent judgment. This account does not assume any legal responsibility for investment consequences. 2. This account contains forward-looking statements. Characteristic words of forward-looking statements include "expect," "should," "estimate," "may," "will," "believe," "future," "plan," and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements typically involve risks and uncertainties beyond this account's control, which may cause actual results to be completely inconsistent with expected results of forward-looking statements. Anyone should carefully consider risks and uncertainties and cannot completely rely on this account's "forward-looking statements." This account declares that regardless of whether new information, future events, or other circumstances arise, this account has no obligation to update or modify any forward-looking statements.