Gold's volatile performance this week has drawn significant market attention. The price of April gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell sharply from last Friday's level of $5,061.70 per ounce. In early trading on the 21st, both spot gold and gold futures dropped below the $4,500 mark, with a weekly decline exceeding 10%. This marks the largest weekly percentage drop since March 1983, a record spanning nearly 43 years. By the close, gold had fallen for an eighth consecutive trading session.

Meanwhile, May silver futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell from above $80 per ounce to below $70, recording a cumulative weekly loss of over 14%. Influenced by the sharp decline in international gold prices, the prices of domestic branded gold jewelry also retreated simultaneously, with prices from several major brands falling below 1,400 yuan per gram. Traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset, gold has surprisingly not demonstrated its defensive characteristics amidst Middle Eastern conflicts. This week's unexpected decline has shocked investors. Fawad Razaqzada, a senior strategist at Gain Capital, stated that gold is caught between two opposing forces: geopolitical tensions, which typically benefit safe-haven assets, and a macroeconomic environment dominated by rising yields and a strengthening US dollar. Previously, gold had shown impressive resilience in withstanding these negative factors. However, the situation has deteriorated over the past few weeks. Even though geopolitical tensions provide some safe-haven demand, macroeconomic factors are largely suppressing it. Former J.P. Morgan precious metals trader Robert Gottlieb cautioned investors against rushing to buy the dip, citing excessive market volatility. He suggested that selling pressure is likely to persist until volatility begins to narrow and prices stabilize and consolidate.

**Other Key News This Week**

**Han Wenxiu Elaborates on Highlights of the "16th Five-Year" Plan: Focuses on Resident Income Growth and AI Response** The "China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting," organized by the Development Research Center of the State Council and undertaken by the China Development Research Foundation, was held in Beijing on March 22. Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Office of the Central Financial Commission and Director of the Office of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, delivered a keynote speech. Han Wenxiu stated that China's advantage of having an ultra-large-scale market has not yet been fully utilized, and there is significant potential for expanding consumption, particularly in services. He also highlighted substantial investment opportunities in urban renewal, traditional infrastructure upgrades, and new infrastructure projects. He announced plans to formulate and implement a "Urban and Rural Resident Income Increase Plan" to significantly boost the household consumption rate. The approach will involve closely combining investment in physical assets with investment in human capital, strengthening investments in human resource development and comprehensive personal advancement, thereby fully unleashing the growth potential of the large economy.

**He Lifeng Meets with Multinational Corporation Executives** On the evening of March 21, He Lifeng, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, met with leaders from prominent multinational companies including HSBC, UBS, Louis Dreyfus Company, Siemens Healthineers, Schneider Electric, Rio Tinto, Prudential, Investor AB, Standard Chartered, Suzano, and TCC at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse. He Lifeng stated that the Chinese economy is stable with positive trends and is advancing towards new, high-quality development. During the "16th Five-Year" period, China will unswervingly expand high-level opening-up and promote high-quality development, which will create broader market opportunities for multinational corporations. He welcomed increased investment in China by multinational companies to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation. The corporate leaders expressed confidence in the Chinese economy and their intention to continue deepening their presence in the Chinese market and expanding their investments.

**Pan Gongsheng: Utilizing Multiple Tools to Maintain Ample Liquidity** At the China Development Forum on March 22, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the central bank will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. It will comprehensively use various monetary policy tools, including the reserve requirement ratio, policy rates, and open market operations, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system.

**Central Bank: Macroprudential Adjustment Coefficient for Overseas Lending by Domestic Enterprises Raised** The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued the "Measures for the Administration of Overseas Lending by Domestic Enterprises." Key provisions include: unifying the management of RMB and foreign currency overseas lending businesses for domestic enterprises, facilitating efficient operations under consistent rules; incorporating overseas lending into macroprudential management, clearly linking the upper limit of overseas lending balances to the enterprise's ownership equity; raising the macroprudential adjustment coefficient for overseas lending from 0.5 to 0.6, effectively increasing the overall ceiling for overseas lending balances to better meet cross-border operational funding needs of enterprises; and specifying management and fund usage requirements for domestic banks and enterprises conducting overseas lending business to effectively prevent risks.

**Draft Financial Law Released for Public Comment** The Ministry of Justice, the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange published the draft "Financial Law of the People's Republic of China" on their official websites to solicit public opinion. The draft emphasizes strengthening national monitoring of financial market risks, establishing sound rapid response mechanisms for financial market risks, and properly addressing major risks such as abnormal market fluctuations, market panic, and liquidity crunches. It also stipulates that financial management departments and other relevant authorities under the State Council should enhance expectation management and policy coordination, conduct assessments of the impact of major financial policies, coordinate the release of significant information, and legally address false or misleading information.

**Harvest Crude Oil LOF: Trading Halted Until 10:30 on March 23 Due to Premium Risk** Harvest Crude Oil LOF announced that the fund's secondary market trading price has been significantly higher than its net asset value per share, indicating a substantial premium. To protect the interests of fund shareholders, trading of the fund will be suspended from the market open on March 23, 2026, until 10:30 AM on the same day, resuming at 10:30. Redemption services will operate normally during the suspension. If the premium does not decrease effectively, the fund reserves the right to take further measures. Subscription services have been suspended since February 3, 2026, with a resumption date to be announced later.

**SSE Accepts Yushu Technology's IPO Application for STAR Market** The Shanghai Stock Exchange has accepted the IPO application of Yushu Technology Co., Ltd. for the STAR Market. The company aims to raise 4.202 billion yuan.

**WeChat Launches Official "ClawBot" Plugin** According to a Tencent announcement, WeChat has officially launched the "ClawBot" plugin, supporting integration with OpenClaw. Users can connect OpenClaw to WeChat by scanning a QR code or copying a command. Once connected, users can quickly interact with their "Claw" efficiently through WeChat chat. Additionally, Tencent's cloud-based "Lighthouse," self-developed "workbuddy," and local "QClaw" are also available.

**ByteDance Sells Moonton Games for 41.3 Billion Yuan** On March 20, ByteDance announced it had reached a definitive agreement to sell Moonton Games to Savvy Games Group, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF), for over $6 billion (approximately 41.3 billion yuan).

**Trump Issues 48-Hour Ultimatum to Iran; Iran Responds Forcefully** According to reports, US President Donald Trump issued a threat to Iran on the 21st, demanding it open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face the destruction of its power plants. Trump stated on social media, "If Iran fails to fully open the Strait of Hormuz without threat from this moment forward within 48 hours, the US will strike and destroy Iran's various power plants, starting with the largest one!" Reports indicate that Iran's largest power facility is the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in southwestern Iran. Iranian media reported that the Bushehr plant was deliberately attacked on the evening of the 17th, with the strike occurring just 200 meters from the nuclear reactor. An Iranian armed forces spokesperson stated that if Iran's fuel and energy infrastructure is violated by enemies, all energy, IT, and freshwater facilities belonging to the US and Israel in the Middle East will become targets.

**US Stock Indices Close Lower; Nasdaq Drops Over 2%** The three major US stock indices closed lower on Friday. The Dow Jones fell 0.96%, bringing its weekly loss to 2.11% and marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline, the longest such streak since February 2023. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.01%, down 2.07% for the week, also its fourth straight weekly loss. The S&P 500 fell 1.51%, declining 1.9% for the week and recording its fourth consecutive weekly drop, the longest streak since March 2025. Super Micro Computer fell over 33%. Optical communication stocks led the declines, with Applied Optoelectronics down over 14%, Coherent down over 9%, and Lumentum down over 8%. Memory chip stocks also fell sharply, with SanDisk down over 8%, Western Digital down over 7%, Seagate Technology down over 5%, and Micron Technology down over 4%.

**Upcoming Global Market Events Next Week**

* **March 23, Monday:** * The 16th China International Energy Storage Conference 2026 will be held from March 23 to 26. * Huawei will hold a Spring Full-Scenario New Product Launch at 14:30. * **March 24, Tuesday:** * The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 will be held from March 24 to 27. * Arm announced it will host a chip event. * **March 25, Wednesday:** * The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Medicines and Health Products will hold a briefing on rare earth and rare metal export policies and market conditions. * The Shanghai International Semiconductor Exhibition will be held from March 25 to 27. * The 16th China International Clean Energy Expo (CEEC 2026) will be held in Beijing from March 25 to 27. * The 2026 China Commercial Vehicle Forum will be held from March 25 to 27. * The 2026 Zhongguancun Forum Annual Meeting will be held in Beijing from March 25 to 29. * The Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting. * **March 26, Thursday:** * The 114th National Sugar and Alcoholic Commodities Fair will be held in Chengdu from March 26 to 28. * **March 27, Friday:** * The 2026 Global Developers Pioneer Conference will be held in Shanghai from March 27 to 29. * The China EV100 Forum (2026) will be held in Beijing from March 27 to 29. * US Core PCE Price Index year-on-year data for February will be released.

**Brokerage Strategy Views**

**CSC: Historical Data Suggests Gold May Have Another 5% Downside** Following the US-Iran conflict, gold's weakness can be understood from four perspectives. Historical experience shows that after the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, gold performance is generally weak, with declines being common; most price increases occur before the conflict erupts. Gold's hedging effect against US stocks is not as strong as perceived; in recent years, gold has shown a positive correlation with US equities, so holding gold may not provide protection during a US stock decline. In the short term, a rising US dollar index and US Treasury yields also put pressure on gold. After a sharp rally earlier this year, gold's volatility spiked to historically high levels, leading to potential short-term market caution. Referring to the historical maximum decline after the Iran-Iraq War, there might be around 5% further downside potential. A stabilization in US stocks could pave the way for a broader market sentiment recovery, likely contingent on an easing of tensions. A further normalization of volatility is also needed.

**Huatai Securities: 2026 Could Be an Inflection Point Year for Green Hydrogen Industry** On March 16, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a notice on conducting pilot projects for comprehensive hydrogen energy application. The policy focus has shifted from solely subsidizing vehicles to promoting multi-scenario penetration. The outlook is positive for domestic green hydrogen due to intensive policy catalysts, stricter overseas transportation carbon emission constraints, and amplified global energy price volatility amid Middle East tensions. 2026 could mark an inflection point for the green hydrogen industry. Domestic green hydrogen project operators, ammonia/alcohol equipment suppliers, and electrolyzer manufacturers are expected to benefit.