Rigetti Computing will release its fiscal year 2025 third-quarter financial results after the U.S. stock market closes on November 10. The market's focus is on revenue trends, gross margin stability, and the extent of improvement in adjusted EPS. According to data from the Tiger International APP, Rigetti Computing's third-quarter revenue is projected to be $2.17 million, nearly 9% down year-over-year; adjusted EPS is expected to be a loss of $0.04, up more than 46% year-over-year.
Review of the Previous Quarter
In the previous quarter, the company generated approximately $1.801 million in revenue, a 41.64% year-over-year decline; gross margin was 31.43%, the direction of the year-over-year comparison was not disclosed but remained above 30%; net income attributable to the parent company was -$39.654 million, with a quarter-over-quarter growth rate of -193.04%; net profit margin was not disclosed; adjusted EPS was -$0.056, a year-over-year improvement of 20%. The key points of the previous quarter were the small scale of revenue but the gross margin remained above 30%, and the reduction in operating loss was below market expectations, with expenses and R&D investment still being sources of pressure. The company’s main business “Collaborative Research and Other Professional Services” revenue was approximately $1.711 million, accounting for about 95%, showing that external collaboration and professional services are the core of its monetization structure, providing short-term revenue stability, but scaling still requires new customers and larger contracts.
Outlook for This Quarter
Product Commercialization and Quality of Client Contracts
Rigetti Computing's revenue structure is primarily based on collaborative research and professional services, indicating that current revenue is more project-based rather than subscription or usage fees at scale. This structure is expected to continue this quarter, and any new or renewed large collaborative contracts will directly affect year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter revenue performance. The contract structure determines revenue visibility and gross margin levels. Project-based revenue gross margin is influenced by project configuration and external costs, and maintaining a gross margin in the 30% range implies the company possesses a certain level of pricing and cost control ability. If higher value-added joint research is promoted in defense, scientific research or large enterprise scenarios, the gross margin is expected to remain stable or slightly improve, forming a buffer against the cash consumption pace.
Growth Path of Quantum Cloud Access Business
The revenue proportion from accessing quantum computing systems is still small, indicating that this business is in the early expansion stage. The key point of this business lies in the utilization time and payment structure improvement. Once downstream developers, research institutions, and enterprises integrate Rigetti’s system into their workloads, usage fees will bring recurring revenue, and the gross margin and scale effect have more potential. If there is a quarter-over-quarter rise in revenue from accessing quantum systems this quarter, it will be an early signal of the business model transitioning from a project-based to product-based and platform-based model. Meanwhile, positive catalysts from industry peers (such as significant revenue growth of peer companies driving sector confidence) are expected to enhance potential customers' willingness to try and purchase. Ultimately converting to paid usage for Rigetti depends on hardware stability, quantum volume, and error rate control, as well as the integration experience with the mainstream cloud ecosystems.
Cost Control and Sustainability of EBIT Improvement
Market forecasts indicate that this quarter’s EBIT is expected to improve to about -$18.72 million, showing a year-over-year improvement trend. Combined with last quarter’s operating loss being below expectations, it suggests that expense management remains a focal point for market attention. If expense management becomes more effective, adjusted EPS improvement will follow. Observing the efficiency of R&D investment allocation is necessary, as quantum hardware iteration and software stack improvement are the sources of the company's core competitive strength, and cost reductions should not come at the expense of R&D quality. Investors will be interested in this quarter’s communication regarding R&D milestones and commercialization pathways, which could bolster patience and confidence in loss reduction.
Analyst Opinions
According to media and institutional reports, most analysts covering Rigetti Computing have a “Buy” rating, with some institutions raising their target price by mid-2025 and maintaining a positive outlook. The core logic of their views includes: expected continued loss reduction, the gradual advancement of commercial contracts and customer expansion, and improved industry sentiment boosted by sector catalysts. Multiple analysts emphasize “narrowing EPS loss to around $0.05” and “revenue decline year-over-year but expectations controllable,” raising the median target price to the mid-double-digit range, focusing on “maintaining Buy rating,” and “industry sentiment improving, commercialization verification remains critical.” The proportion of positive vs. negative views leans towards the positive, with negative views mainly revolving around commercialization speed and cash consumption pressure but in smaller proportion. Given recent market focus on quantum computing companies and consistent expressions in several preview articles, the mainstream institutional view can be summarized as: short-term revenue volume remains limited, but the trend of loss reduction and progress in business signings makes the risk-reward ratio attractive. The stock price volatility post-earnings release may be significant; if the financial report clarifies new contracts and platform usage metrics, it is expected to continue supporting the positive rating.
This content is generated based on Tiger AI data and is for reference only.