On Tuesday, February 17, international gold prices encountered resistance and fell again, closing lower. Positive signals from Iran-US negotiations and the formal launch of the US-Japan trade agreement announced by Trump reduced safe-haven demand, leaving prices below short-term moving averages and the midline, with bears temporarily holding the advantage. However, dovish remarks from Fed's Goolsbee, suggesting multiple rate cuts if inflation continues to decline, maintain a fundamentally bullish outlook. Therefore, after stabilizing above the midline, a follow-through for new highs is expected; otherwise, the current weak adjustment may persist, awaiting a retest of support at the 60-day moving average or the 10-week moving average before resuming an upward rebound.
In specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4995.59 per ounce, briefly recording an intraday high of $5000.90 before trending downward throughout the day. The decline extended into the US session, touching a low of $4841.30. Prices then found some footing and consolidated but failed to strengthen significantly, ultimately closing at $4877.29. The day's amplitude was $159.6, with a loss of $118.3, or 2.37%.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, February 18, international gold opened on a weaker note but found support near the 30-day moving average and was buoyed by the Fed's dovish comments, preventing further breakdown. However, significant resistance remains overhead, and without further positive fundamentals, the weekly trend is still treated as weak.
Key data releases for the day include US December New Home Starts (annualized, in thousands), US December Durable Goods Orders MoM, US December Building Permits Total (thousands), US January Industrial Production MoM, and US January Conference Board Leading Index MoM. Market expectations lean towards figures that could be favorable for gold prices.
Additionally, the Fed will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 03:00 the following day. Based on prior behavior, the minutes are expected to maintain a rate-cut bias, albeit with disagreements on the extent and timing. Consequently, this is unlikely to exert significant downward pressure on gold. Therefore, the latter half of the week is expected to see further declines, with a strategy focused on buying near support levels.
Fundamentally, breakthrough progress in US-Iran nuclear talks and the initiation of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have significantly cooled geopolitical risks this week, severely impacting gold's safe-haven demand. Coupled with a strengthening US dollar increasing selling pressure, these factors represent阶段性 pressures within a gold bull market and are unlikely to trigger a trend reversal.
Moreover, the Fed's rate-cutting cycle remains intact, with some officials and Trump favoring more substantial cuts. This indicates that factors bullish for gold will only be delayed, not absent. Continued central bank gold purchases provide a foundation for long-term bulls, and the recurring nature of geopolitical tensions means that any temporary or short-term adjustment still creates entry opportunities for bullish positions. Expectations for new highs within the year remain.
Technically, on a monthly chart, after February's decline extended January's bearish shooting star pattern, prices found support at the converted resistance-turned-support of the early-year breakout上升 trendline, rebounding and holding within the new bull market space. Trading above the 5-month moving average suggests January's bearish correction has been exhausted, and the new bull market outlook remains valid. Prices are expected to strengthen and climb again above this trend support, or after a period of consolidation.
On a weekly chart, last week's formation of a bearish shooting star pattern led to this week's rejection and pullback, erasing last week's gains and pushing prices below the 5-week moving average. This suggests potential for a further decline within the week towards support at the 10-week moving average around $4730. Therefore, until prices reclaim the 5-week moving average, a corrective, bearish view targeting this support level is maintained.
On the daily chart, gold is currently trading below the midline and short-term moving averages, with bears in control. Although early session trading found support at the 30-day moving average, there remains a risk of breaking this support and testing the 60-day moving average before a stable close above the midline is achieved. Operationally, consider buying near yesterday's low or the 60-day moving average support, while looking to sell near resistance from the midline and short-term moving averages.
For specific, real-time trading guidance, refer to live account information.
Preliminary intraday trading level ideas are provided for reference; exact entry and exit points are subject to real-time account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4820 or $4730; resistance levels are around $4930 or $4990. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $70.80 or $68.20; resistance levels are around $75.00 or $76.70.