Guotai Haitong has released a research report stating that an intensifying liquidity crisis and heightened market volatility will accelerate the repricing of major asset classes. With fundamental pricing factors remaining unchanged, global equities and commodities may still present performance opportunities. The firm recommends an overweight position in A/H-shares, US stocks, crude oil, and industrial commodities for February.
The core views of Guotai Haitong are outlined as follows: The institution has established an "all-weather" asset allocation framework comprising "Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) — Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) — Major Event Review and Adjustment" to serve as an overall guide for investment decisions. This framework first uses SAA to diversify macro risks and set long-term benchmark allocation ratios, ensuring portfolio stability. TAA employs quantitative methods to identify assets with superior short-term risk-return characteristics, making appropriate adjustments to portfolio weights to enhance returns. Finally, subjective deliberation on major events is incorporated to calibrate and supplement the quantitative results.
The report argues that the liquidity crisis intensifying market volatility will hasten the repricing of major assets. Given that fundamental pricing drivers are intact, global equities and commodities could still offer opportunities. An overweight stance on A/H-shares, US stocks, crude oil, and industrial commodities is advised for February.
The recommended equity allocation weight for February 2026 is 47.50%: Overweight A-shares (10.00%), Overweight H-shares (10.00%), Overweight US stocks (17.50%), Neutral on European stocks (5.00%), and Neutral on Japanese stocks (5.00%).
Within equity assets: (1) Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight position in A/H-shares. As the Central Economic Work Conference approaches and 2026 marks the beginning of the 16th Five-Year Plan period, a further expansion of the broad fiscal deficit is anticipated, with economic policies expected to become more proactive. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December proceeded as expected, and a stable, appreciating Renminbi provides favorable conditions for monetary easing in China early in 2026. Reforms are boosting risk appetite in the Chinese market. Market volatility triggered by the liquidity crisis may, in fact, present a strategic allocation opportunity for A/H-shares. (2) A gradually emerging "Goldilocks" backdrop favors US stock performance, recommending an overweight position. The US economy shows marginal cooling but retains resilience, endogenous inflation stickiness is gradually weakening, and corporate earnings expectations may continue to support an upward trend in US equity valuations.
The recommended bond allocation weight for February 2026 is 35.00%: Long-duration Chinese government bonds (7.50%), Short-duration Chinese government bonds (10.00%), Long-duration US Treasuries (7.50%), and Short-duration US Treasuries (10.00%).
Within bond assets: (1) Structural monetary policies may reinforce the allocation demand for Chinese government bonds. An imbalance between financing demand and credit supply persists, but with risk appetite trending upwards, households and corporations might rebalance their asset allocations. The bond market had been subdued due to a lack of effective allocation demand; however, as structural monetary policies take effect, the willingness of allocation-focused funds to purchase bonds could strengthen. (2) The US economy is converging marginally but not stalling, with the labor market cooling gently. Weakening energy prices and moderated wage growth are conducive to a decline in endogenous inflation stickiness. Fed Chair nominee Warsh, appointed by Trump, advocates for balance sheet reduction and a moderate lowering of policy interest rates, suggesting US Treasury yields may trend downwards gently. However, the Trump administration's hegemonic actions, disrupting international geopolitical order, have significantly weakened US sovereign credit. Global central banks and large pension funds are trending towards reducing their holdings of US Treasuries, resulting in an extremely low risk-return profile for US Treasuries compared to other major asset classes.
The recommended commodity allocation weight for February 2026 is 12.50%: Neutral on gold (5.00%), Overweight crude oil (3.75%), and Overweight industrial commodities (3.75%).
Within commodities: (1) Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East suggest an overweight position in crude oil. While global crude demand is relatively weak, OPEC+'s decision to continue pausing production increases in March, coupled with severe recent geopolitical maneuvering in the Middle East, could provide phased support for oil prices. (2) Upward revisions to demand expectations and sustained high trading momentum recommend an overweight position in industrial commodities. Industrial metals, represented by copper, may experience a period of supply-demand imbalance. Construction, power grids, and electric vehicles are current primary demand drivers, while AI computing expansion and grid modernization introduce new structural demand. Concurrently, the cost and complexity of copper development have increased significantly.
Risk warnings include limitations in analytical dimensions, subjectivity in model design, deviations in historical and projected data, adjustments in market consensus expectations, and the inherent limitations of quantitative models.