SpaceX closed at 108.27 USD, down 13.61%.

A massive wave of institutional bearishness swept through SPCX options, headlined by a $20.39 million synthetic short and a $8.59 million calendar put structure. These large trades, overwhelmingly skewed to the downside, underscore a market bracing for further weakness.

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Options Indicators

SPCX is showing an implied volatility of 97.41%, and with an IV percentile of 92.42%, its current volatility sits in a clearly elevated range, indicating that options are priced expensively relative to their own historical levels. The IV/HV ratio of 1.53 further suggests implied volatility is running well above realized volatility, meaning the options market is embedding a substantial premium for anticipated movement. In this environment, long option buyers face a richer entry cost, while premium-selling structures or defined-risk spread approaches may offer a more efficient way to express a view. The Call/Put volume ratio is 0.86.

Large Trades

A bearish synthetic short worth $20.39 million was the largest displayed trade, built by selling 7,500 September 18, 2026 $115.00 calls and buying 7,500 September 18, 2026 $115.00 puts. With SPCX referenced at $108.27, the short call was out of the money while the long put was in the money, creating a classic synthetic short stock position that expresses directional downside exposure. Based on the preprocessed premiums, the structure brought in $11.00 million from the short call and spent $9.39 million on the long put, for a net credit of $1.61 million. That makes this a sizable bearish position established not only to benefit from continued weakness in the underlying, but also with upfront premium received.

A $8.59 million three-leg calendar-style put structure was the second displayed trade, combining the sale of 2,304 September 18, 2026 $110.00 puts, the purchase of 1,820 August 28, 2026 $120.00 puts, and the purchase of 1,976 September 18, 2026 $110.00 puts. With SPCX at $108.27, all three put legs were in the money, and the strategy appears designed as a layered downside positioning trade that mixes near-dated and longer-dated put exposure while partially financing the structure through the short September $110.00 puts. Using the provided premium totals, the trader received $3.01 million from the short put leg and paid $5.58 million for the two long put legs, resulting in a net debit of $2.57 million. Strategically, this points to hedging or active bearish exposure, with the buyer willing to pay meaningful premium for downside protection and put-term-structure positioning.

Overall sentiment is clearly bearish. The full large-trade flow shows bearish activity overwhelmingly dominating bullish flow, and that tone is reinforced by the character of the biggest trades: multiple synthetic shorts, repeated put buying, and other downside-oriented spreads. Even where structures were financed with short option legs, the dominant message was still protection-seeking or outright negative directional positioning rather than bullish risk-taking. The conclusion is that institutional-sized options activity in SPCX is skewed decisively toward expectations of further downside or the need to hedge against it.

Strategy Reference

With IV at the 92nd percentile, premium-selling strategies are favored; a bearish call spread, such as selling a $115.00 call and buying a higher-strike call, could capture rich premium while defining risk.