Earning Preview: Rio Tinto PLC this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 0%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Rio Tinto PLC will report on February 19, 2026 before-market; our preview synthesizes the latest quarterly financials and recent developments to frame expectations for revenue stability, margin resilience around prior-quarter levels, and the investment narrative following the termination of Glencore combination discussions.

Market Forecast

Publicly available forecasts specific to the upcoming quarter were not provided, and the company has not issued formal quarterly guidance; market positioning suggests expectations for broadly stable revenue and margins relative to last quarter’s profile, with net profit tracking similar levels given the mix of iron ore, aluminum, and copper. Using the most recent quarter as a reference point, the company delivered a 27.62% gross profit margin and a 16.85% net profit margin; absent explicit guidance, adjusted EPS is not available, and year-over-year comparisons cannot be inferred.

The main business remains iron ore, where the near-term outlook hinges on realized prices and shipment execution; investors will watch for stability in unit costs and logistics to preserve last quarter’s margin profile. Copper is positioned as a key medium-term growth vector, supported by operational improvements, with last quarter’s copper revenue at 4.73 billion; year-over-year growth data were not available.

Last Quarter Review

In the last reported quarter, Rio Tinto PLC generated revenue of 53.66 billion, with a gross profit margin of 27.62%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.26 billion, a net profit margin of 16.85%, and adjusted EPS not disclosed; quarter-on-quarter growth in net profit attributable to the parent company registered 0%.

A noteworthy financial highlight is the flat quarter-on-quarter trajectory in net profit, which, combined with solid margins, underscores operating stability through the period. By business line, iron ore contributed 30.80 billion, aluminum 13.00 billion, copper 4.73 billion, industrial minerals 2.68 billion, gold 797.00 million, diamonds 279.00 million, and other products 1.38 billion; year-over-year growth by segment was not available.

Current Quarter Outlook

Iron Ore: Volume Delivery and Realized Price Drive-Through

Iron ore is expected to remain the core earnings engine in the current quarter, with performance defined by realized pricing and shipment execution. Against the prior quarter’s 27.62% gross margin and 16.85% net margin, maintaining cost discipline in mining, processing, and rail/port chains is critical to preserving margin resilience. Investors should scrutinize commentary on logistics throughput, maintenance windows, and any seasonal impacts, as these factors can shift sales timing and price realizations within the quarter. Unit cash costs remain a central focus: incremental increases in diesel, labor, or contractor rates would pressure margins unless offset by stronger realized prices or favorable FX.

Price quality adjustments and product mix will be pivotal. Blending strategies and the proportion of fines versus lump can nudge premiums and discounts, influencing netbacks to the P&L even if headline benchmarks appear steady. Should the company echo last quarter’s stable profit cadence (net profit quarter-on-quarter change of 0%), it would likely imply continued tight execution on shipments and a supportive average realized price. With iron ore revenue previously at 30.80 billion, the absolute contribution remains substantial, meaning even modest deviations in realized price per tonne can materially alter quarterly earnings. Market attention will also turn to any updates on sustaining capital and tie-ins that could temporarily influence volumes but aim to protect long-run productivity.

Copper: Operational Uplift and Reliability as a Margin Lever

Copper remains a focal point for growth and diversification within the portfolio, with last quarter revenue at 4.73 billion. The recent energization of a 25 MW solar facility at the Kennecott copper operations in Utah signals ongoing work to improve power reliability and cost structure at a key asset. While incremental on a group basis, this type of operational enhancement can reduce operating costs and carbon intensity, supporting more stable margins and improved availability through seasons with higher power prices or grid constraints.

Execution in copper typically translates through grades, mill throughput, and maintenance efficiency, and the market will be looking for commentary that connects recent reliability improvements to output consistency. If throughput remains solid and recoveries are stable, copper’s contribution could strengthen even without a visible step-up in external demand indicators. Pricing sensitivity remains a consideration, but strong mine reliability often manifests in better unit costs and steadier EBITDA, buffering price volatility. Investors will likely parse any updates on mine sequencing and pit advancement that could alter grade profiles in the near term. Overall, a steady quarter from copper would reinforce diversification benefits relative to iron ore, with incremental gains from operational upgrades compounding as the year progresses.

Aluminum: Cash Conversion and Strategic Positioning

Aluminum contributed 13.00 billion in the last quarter and provides balance to the group’s earnings through its blend of upstream bauxite, alumina, and primary metal exposure. Cost dynamics—particularly energy inputs for smelting—are the essential watchpoints for this quarter. Markets will look for any commentary on power contracts, curtailments, or maintenance that could influence run-rate production and conversion costs. A tonal emphasis on stable power availability would be positive for maintaining last quarter’s margin profile and cash conversion ratios.

Strategically, the company has been active in evaluating and pursuing opportunities in the aluminum value chain. The recently announced move to enter a joint venture with a partner to acquire a controlling stake in a Brazilian aluminum business (subject to approvals and closing conditions) underscores an appetite for portfolio shaping that ties into bauxite/alumina integration and regional smelting capacity. While the transaction is not expected to impact the current quarter’s numbers, it frames the medium-term pathway for increasing scale and potentially realizing integration synergies. Near term, however, the revenue and earnings contribution will continue to be defined by metal prices and the company’s cost curve positioning; in a steady price environment, operational reliability and disciplined cost management can help preserve contribution margins.

Key Share Price Drivers This Quarter: Strategic Reset and Commodity Tape

The company’s decision, announced in early February, to cease pursuing a combination with Glencore meaningfully reduces deal-speculation noise ahead of results. With that uncertainty removed, investor attention is likely to re-center on operating results, capital allocation signals, and commentary about near-term shipment and cost trajectories. If management emphasizes steady operating momentum and maintains a disciplined capital posture, equity holders may anchor their expectations to consistent cash generation from iron ore and incremental progress in copper and aluminum.

Commodity prices remain the most immediate swing factor for quarterly outcomes. Realized iron ore and aluminum prices, along with copper’s monthly average trajectory through the quarter, will influence top-line and margin. Currency exposures versus the US dollar can also affect cost lines and translation. Any updates on maintenance schedules or one-off operational items could change the near-term earnings cadence, especially where throughput variations alter cost absorption. Investors will parse whether the company expects margins near last quarter’s 27.62% gross and 16.85% net levels to hold, recognizing that the segment mix and short-cycle pricing effects can cause modest deviations.

Capital allocation commentary at the quarterly update can be a catalyzer. While the company often communicates distributions with half-year and full-year markers, reiteration of balance sheet discipline and investment hurdles, especially after stepping back from the Glencore discussions, would be read as supportive for valuation stability. The market will watch for progress markers on organic projects and incremental operational enhancements that signal durable cash cost improvements across the portfolio. Clarity on these fronts can temper the impact of commodity volatility on the equity narrative through the quarter.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent published views since January 1, 2026, the balance of opinions is tilted toward bullish when measured strictly against bearish calls: bullish 4, bearish 0, with several neutral/hold ratings. Among well-known institutions, Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating, Morgan Stanley also maintained a Buy stance, and Bernstein kept a Buy, while DZ Bank reaffirmed a Buy as well. Neutral or Hold ratings were issued by Citi, UBS, RBC, Jefferies, and Berenberg, indicating a cluster of balanced views that nevertheless does not outweigh the bullish cohort when contrasted directly with bearish opinions, which were absent.

The bullish camp is supported by a constructive view on the company’s cash generation and portfolio balance. Institutional commentary highlights resilient iron ore cash flows anchoring the base earnings while a measured expansion path in copper provides embedded optionality. This positioning is seen as augmenting the earnings mix without overreliance on any single metal’s cycle. The emphasis on operational improvements—exemplified by updates at the Kennecott copper operations—feeds into the thesis that cost structures can be incrementally improved, cushioning margins through periods of commodity price oscillation. Analysts also point to capital allocation discipline as a stabilizing feature, a narrative reinforced by the company opting not to proceed with the Glencore combination, which helps frame a focused approach to shareholder value.

Goldman Sachs’ maintained Buy reflects confidence that the company’s operating cadence can keep margins relatively stable near recently reported levels, assuming no adverse pricing shock in key commodities. Morgan Stanley’s Buy similarly aligns with expectations for consistent volume delivery and the potential for incremental improvements in copper and aluminum to broaden the earnings base. Bernstein’s Buy underscores the idea that operational execution paired with a robust balance sheet provides levers to navigate short-cycle volatility. DZ Bank’s Buy further emphasizes a favorable setup for incremental value creation as organic and operational initiatives reach fruition.

In synthesis, the preponderance of buy-side institutional opinions centers on three pillars: stable iron ore-driven cash flow, advancing operational reliability in copper and aluminum, and disciplined strategic choices that prioritize long-term returns over opportunistic scale. Heading into the February 19, 2026 update, the absence of formal numerical guidance has not deterred the bullish cohort from expecting a steady quarter, particularly if management signals continuity in costs, shipment execution, and a clear, measured capital deployment framework.