According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin is once again facing a seasonal test after last October's crash, but the market structure has undergone fundamental changes.
Unlike the fragile state before the crash a year ago, the current market is driven by institutional capital rather than retail leverage, and this difference determines that the resilience of this October's行情 far exceeds expectations.
Buying pressure successfully absorbed strong selling near $85,000, pushing Bitcoin to climb to $87,000 on October 2, hitting a new high since September 23.
Behind this move is a recovery in institutional investment demand. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that on October 1, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT.US) reached $102.7 million, injecting critical liquidity into the market.
After several months of slowing fund inflows, the rebound in ETF activity is crucial, which stands in sharp contrast to the situation in October 2025 and highlights the structural improvement in the current funding landscape.
Looking back at October 10 last year, a tariff policy involving China triggered massive deleveraging, with CoinShares estimating liquidation losses of approximately $19 billion, ranking among the most severe systemic crises in cryptocurrency history.
At that time, Bitcoin had just broken through its all-time high of $122,000, and the sharp reversal ended its record of seven consecutive years of October gains, exposing the destructive power of high leverage on bullish sentiment.
In contrast, this year's spot ETF mechanism provides institutional investors with a mature channel. The recent price increase prompted the liquidation of over $120 million in short positions, with total liquidations across the cryptocurrency market at approximately $210 million, making leverage risk significantly more controllable.
The macroeconomic environment remains the core variable. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to 3.75%-4% on September 16, the first rate hike since 2023, but officials' statements lowered expectations for another rate hike in October.
Although inflation and U.S. Treasury bond yields still pose risks, a relatively accommodative interest rate environment is expected to support risk assets.
Therefore, the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for October 27-28 has become a key node for traders to watch closely, in addition to ETF fund flows.