Following the escalation of US-Iran tensions, oil prices have surged consecutively, with both Brent crude and WTI crude prices surpassing $75 per barrel. The 30% year-to-date gain in 2026 has outpaced the previously strong performers, gold and silver.
However, the sharp short-term rally has immediately drawn regulatory attention. On the evening of March 3, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and its subsidiary, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, issued consecutive announcements. They declared that starting from the night trading session on March 3, trading limits for several popular futures contracts would be adjusted. This move is seen as a coordinated effort by regulators to curb market risks and suppress excessive speculation against the backdrop of current geopolitical tensions.
The adjustments cover four major commodities, with the containerized freight index facing the strictest controls. According to the announcements, starting March 4, 2026, the maximum daily intraday open positions for listed contracts on crude oil, low-sulphur fuel oil, and the containerized freight index futures will be revised. For crude oil futures, the maximum daily open position is set at 1,200 lots; for low-sulphur fuel oil futures, it is 6,000 lots; and for the containerized freight index futures, it is significantly lower at just 50 lots.
Simultaneously, the Shanghai Futures Exchange also issued a notice adjusting the maximum daily open position for its listed fuel oil futures contracts to 6,000 lots. Both exchanges emphasized that for accounts under actual control relationships, the maximum daily open position will be calculated on a per-client basis, effectively curbing attempts to circumvent regulations through multiple coordinated accounts. Notably, hedging transactions and market-making activities are exempt from these limits, protecting genuine risk management needs and market liquidity provision.
Additionally, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced adjustments to price fluctuation limits and margin requirements effective from the settlement after market close on March 4, 2026. For specific listed crude oil and low-sulphur fuel oil futures contracts, the price limit is set at 12%, with margin requirements for hedging positions at 13% and for speculative positions at 14%. These adjustments are subject to further changes based on specific risk control rules.
The regulatory tightening comes as recent sudden escalations in Middle Eastern geopolitics directly impact global energy and shipping markets. A senior advisor to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander stated that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, with Iran threatening to attack any vessels attempting passage. Furthermore, the US President predicted military actions could last four to five weeks, claiming several Iranian vessels have been sunk.
Consequently, crude oil prices have recorded gains for four consecutive trading sessions. Brent crude currently stands above $82 per barrel, while WTI crude is around $75, making crude oil the best-performing asset this year with gains exceeding 30%, successfully dethroning gold and silver.
The rising oil prices have also affected secondary markets. On the evening of the 3rd, major Chinese oil companies issued announcements regarding abnormal stock price fluctuations, cautioning investors about risks. These companies stated that their A-share prices had accumulated deviations exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days, constituting abnormal volatility according to exchange rules. They confirmed normal production operations and no significant industry policy changes, but highlighted that recent international crude prices, influenced by geopolitics and supply-demand dynamics, are experiencing wide fluctuations, with significant short-term uncertainty. Investors were advised to exercise caution regarding risks.
The A-share prices of these oil giants have seen substantial gains year-to-date, reflecting the strong market sentiment driven by rising oil prices.