Title

Earning Preview: Chord Energy Corp this quarter’s revenue is expected to decrease by 11.89%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Chord Energy Corp will release results on February 25, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to revenue of 1.07 billion and adjusted EPS of 1.31 as investors focus on margin resilience, net income trajectory, and the durability of oil-led cash generation into the new quarter.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter indicates revenue of 1.07 billion, down 11.89% year over year, adjusted EPS of 1.31, down 53.51% year over year, and EBIT of 126.15 million, down 53.42% year over year. Forecasts do not provide explicit gross margin or net margin figures for the quarter, so investors will benchmark margin performance against recent actuals to assess earnings quality.

Crude oil sales remain the central earnings anchor, having contributed 910.81 million last quarter (69.42% of revenue), and expectations imply the company will keep prioritizing oil-weighted development to protect free cash generation. Natural gas and LNG, at 56.04 million last quarter, offers optional upside from a smaller base if realizations and throughput remain constructive, though consensus points to a company-level revenue decline of 11.89% year over year this quarter.

Last Quarter Review

Chord Energy Corp reported revenue of 1.31 billion, a gross profit margin of 46.24%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 130.00 million, a net profit margin of 10.56%, and adjusted EPS of 2.35 (down 30.88% year over year).

A notable highlight was a sizable top-line beat versus prior estimates: revenue exceeded projections by 208.14 million, representing an 18.85% positive surprise. From a business mix standpoint, the company’s revenue remained oil-centric, with crude oil sales of 910.81 million (69.42% of total), while total revenue declined 9.54% year over year, illustrating solid execution against estimates despite a softer year-on-year backdrop.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: crude oil realizations and volumes

The oil sales engine remains the company’s principal earnings determinant, given that crude oil represented 910.81 million of last quarter’s 1.31 billion total revenue. The current-quarter consensus implies pressure to both revenue and profitability at the consolidated level, with revenue down 11.89% year over year, EPS down 53.51% year over year, and EBIT down 53.42% year over year. This pattern suggests that consensus anticipates either softer realized pricing, lower volumes, cost normalization following earlier efficiencies, or a combination of these factors that compresses operating leverage compared to the prior-year period. Investors will likely focus on how realized oil prices and volume cadence translate into gross margin versus last quarter’s 46.24%. Any commentary on completion timing, well ramp profiles, or mix within oil-weighted development will be scrutinized for signals about sustaining margins and stabilizing EPS trajectory beyond the quarter.

The divergence between revenue decline (11.89% year over year) and the sharper declines in EBIT and EPS (both down more than 50% year over year) also flags potential deleveraging through the income statement if prices and/or volumes are lower versus the prior-year quarter. That dynamic places emphasis on cost control, marketing, and takeaway optimization to cushion margins and preserve cash conversion. A narrower gap between revenue performance and EBIT or EPS trends would be interpreted positively, especially if accompanied by commentary pointing to steady well performance and consistent operating efficiency.

Given last quarter’s net profit margin of 10.56% and gross margin of 46.24%, investors will be calibrating the degree to which the company can hold cost inflation at bay and maintain uplift from high-margin oil barrels. A credible path to keep cash costs and maintenance capital aligned with realized prices may allow the company to limit downside to adjusted EPS relative to the steep year-over-year comparisons embedded in consensus. Similarly, if the company offers anything that implies trajectory toward normalizing EBIT relative to revenue, it would help alleviate concerns about operating leverage.

Most promising segment: natural gas and LNG leverage on a small base

Natural gas and LNG contributed 56.04 million last quarter, a small portion of total revenue but with the potential to influence the blended earnings profile if realizations and utilization trends remain supportive. From a smaller revenue base, incremental changes in gas and liquids realizations can magnify EBIT variability quarter to quarter, especially if marketing and transportation costs are well managed. The key watch items include realized differentials, any updates on contracted volumes or takeaway arrangements, and whether the sales mix within gas and liquids can improve cash margins relative to the prior quarter.

Because the segment represents a modest share of total revenue, even moderate sequential progress can assist in offsetting oil-segment variability and help stabilize consolidated margins. Management’s qualitative color on gas lift, liquids recovery, and scheduling will therefore matter, as it can clarify whether performance is tracking toward enhancing the company’s blended margin trajectory or merely maintaining contribution levels. The segment’s optionality is relevant in the context of consensus calling for a double-digit year-over-year revenue decline and sharper earnings compression; upside surprises in gas and LNG would complement the oil portfolio by contributing incremental EBIT on a lean cost footprint. If the company signals improved pricing mechanics or more favorable marketing terms for the quarter in view, that could offer modest relief to EBIT and EPS expectations.

Key stock-price drivers this quarter

Relative performance versus consensus on revenue, EBIT, and adjusted EPS will likely be the most immediate share-price catalyst on February 25, 2026. With consensus embedding revenue of 1.07 billion and adjusted EPS of 1.31, investors will rapidly assess whether the company can mitigate the forecasted operating deleverage implied by year-over-year EPS and EBIT declines exceeding 50%. The quality of earnings mix will be considered alongside headline beats or misses, with particular attention to how gross margin trends relative to last quarter’s 46.24% and whether net income progression aligns with a stable or improving net profit margin from the last reported 10.56%.

Beyond the headline numbers, clarity on capital allocation priorities for the next quarter and year—including maintenance capital needs, growth flexibility within the oil program, and the cadence of any shareholder return framework—could inform valuation narrative. Commentary that outlines a clear path to keep operating costs predictable and capex within a range consistent with mid-cycle prices would be supportive for multiples, especially given the consensus slope embedded in current forecasts. Conversely, if guidance suggests higher cost intensity to support volumes or weaker realizations, investors may extrapolate a lower near-term earnings base, putting pressure on the shares.

Finally, operational milestones—such as execution against the planned completion schedule, production mix, and any progress on marketing or transportation initiatives—will frame how investors think about the next two to three quarters. Signals that the company can defend margins despite the forecasted revenue dip would be taken as an encouraging read-through for free cash flow resilience. Where possible, investors will seek a line of sight that bridges current consensus to a steadier earnings profile, and the company’s specificity on timing and magnitude of expected variances will likely shape the post-report stock reaction.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish vs. bearish ratio among identifiable rating actions between January 1, 2026 and February 18, 2026 stands at 2:0, indicating a clear bullish majority. The recent set of updates shows supportive institutional views heading into the print, with reiterated Buy ratings and updates to price targets that, taken together, suggest confidence in the company’s balance of capital discipline and earnings capacity.

UBS maintained a Buy rating on January 9, 2026 and adjusted its price target to 119.00. That stance is consistent with a view that, notwithstanding a year-over-year normalization in earnings implied by consensus, the company retains levers to protect cash generation and defend return on capital. While the firm acknowledges the quarter’s expected revenue decline of 11.89% year over year and steeper compression in earnings metrics, the maintained Buy rating signals conviction that the company’s financial framework and execution track record can support valuation. UBS’s target setting implies that investors should weigh short-term earnings compression against the company’s ability to navigate costs, preserve margins, and sustain cash returns through the cycle.

Siebert Williams Shank maintained a Buy rating on February 13, 2026, reaffirming a positive stance amid the same consensus slope that points to softer year-over-year results. This endorsement highlights confidence that the company’s strategies—focusing on oil-led cash generation and slotting incremental contributions from natural gas and LNG—can continue to underpin cash flow despite quarter-to-quarter variability. In this context, the firm’s favorable view aligns with the thesis that execution consistency, disciplined capital deployment, and the durability of unit margins are more important than near-term fluctuations implied by the forecasts for EBIT and EPS.

On balance, the bullish camp’s majority rests on the expected durability of the company’s cash-generation model and the belief that temporary earnings headwinds embedded in current forecasts do not undermine the medium-term framework. Analysts emphasizing Buy ratings appear to be prioritizing the company’s ability to manage costs, keep operating execution on plan, and maintain an attractive oil-weighted revenue mix, all of which can help stabilize financial performance beyond the quarter. The contrast between the consensus revenue decline of 11.89% year over year and the sharper drops in EBIT and EPS suggests that analysts will be looking for evidence of narrowing that gap as a sign of improving operating leverage—an outcome that would likely reinforce the majority’s positive stance.

A key aspect in the bullish view is how quickly the company can convert operational results into visible financial resilience: maintaining gross margin near last quarter’s 46.24% would be a favorable signal, while demonstrating consistent net profitability relative to the last reported 10.56% net margin would support the narrative of earnings stability. Analysts endorsing the shares note that the oil-led revenue base (910.81 million last quarter) offers a predictable core from which to optimize returns, with the smaller natural gas and LNG segment providing incremental opportunities for margin lift depending on realizations and marketing. The majority opinion anticipates that even if the current quarter reflects challenging year-over-year comparisons, management commentary on cost structure, operational cadence, and capital allocation can guide investors toward a steadier path for adjusted EPS after this reporting period.

In summary, the prevailing institutional perspective is constructive: recent Buy reiterations from UBS and Siebert Williams Shank indicate confidence in the company’s ability to balance oil-led growth with disciplined spending, absorb near-term earnings normalization, and set up a trajectory that improves operating leverage over time. Against a consensus framework that projects 1.07 billion in revenue and 1.31 in adjusted EPS for the quarter, the bullish viewpoint expects clarity on margins, mix, and execution to be the catalysts that support valuation. Should the company deliver even modestly better alignment between revenue and earnings metrics than currently modeled, the majority of covering institutions appears prepared to maintain their positive stance on the shares.