Abstract

Deckers Outdoor will report fiscal third-quarter results on January 29, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to revenue of 1.87 billion US dollars and adjusted EPS of 2.76 US dollars as investors weigh demand durability for HOKA and UGG against margin sensitivity to promotions.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the quarter to be reported indicates revenue of 1.87 billion US dollars, up 7.97% year over year, adjusted EPS of 2.76 US dollars, up 8.02% year over year, and EBIT of 514.46 million US dollars, up 4.55% year over year. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit margin are not disclosed, and estimates currently emphasize top-line growth supported by operating profitability consistent with recent results.

The main business remains centered on the HOKA franchise, which generated last quarter’s wholesale revenue of 759.59 million US dollars, or 53.09% of the captured segment mix; into this quarter, investors are focused on sell-through health, promotions, and allocation discipline given expected consolidated revenue growth of 7.97% year over year. The most promising segment is HOKA wholesale, with last quarter’s revenue of 759.59 million US dollars and expectations for ongoing international and product-line expansion, while near-term growth cadence is being compared against a group-level growth outlook of 7.97% year over year.

Last Quarter Review

Deckers Outdoor delivered quarterly revenue of 1.43 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 56.18%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 268.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 18.74%, and adjusted EPS of 1.82 US dollars, up 14.47% year over year.

A notable highlight was profitability momentum, with net profit up 92.63% quarter on quarter, reflecting seasonal scale and disciplined expense control alongside a solid margin profile. By business mix, wholesale revenue was led by HOKA at 759.59 million US dollars (53.09%), UGG at 634.09 million US dollars (44.32%), and other brands at 37.17 million US dollars (2.60%), as total revenue rose 9.11% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: HOKA revenue engine and near-term execution

HOKA continues to anchor the company’s revenue base, with the last quarter’s wholesale contribution of 759.59 million US dollars underscoring the brand’s scale across key channels. The quarter now under review is expected to see consolidated revenue advance 7.97% year over year and adjusted EPS grow 8.02% year over year, and the extent to which HOKA sustains its run-rate will be central for meeting or exceeding these targets. Product flow, colorway freshness, and lineup breadth remain focal within the seasonally strong period that typically benefits performance footwear, but the quality of sell-through and the health of replenishment orders will be key watchpoints.

The cadence of HOKA’s wholesale allocations can influence both revenue timing and margin outcomes, with on-time deliveries and a balanced sell-in/sell-through mix viewed as essential to preserving the gross profit margin line that stood at 56.18% last quarter. Inventory positioning at retail partners and the degree of promotional activity are likely to shape the gross-to-net relationship; investors will monitor whether any promotional intensity affects the ASP and mix. Execution on direct engagement, including inventory discipline and channel marketing, may help mitigate promotional drag and keep unit economics consistent with recent profitability.

Most promising business: HOKA’s scaling opportunity and geographic expansion

The brand’s potential remains a central narrative for the quarter, where continued distribution discipline and international progress are frequently cited as structural drivers of HOKA’s multi-year growth runway. Within the current quarter’s setup, the market is watching whether HOKA’s momentum can outpace the consolidated forecast of 7.97% revenue growth while holding profitability near the company’s established range. The combination of new footwear introductions and the broadening of key franchises is designed to support repeat purchases and category extension, which, if supported by healthy sell-through, can reinforce both revenue resilience and operating leverage.

Despite the growth opportunity, consensus discourse highlights factors to balance: planned investments in marketing and brand awareness that bring near-term expense headwinds, and selective promotions that can affect gross margin sensitivity. Maintaining full-price sell-through at leading retailers and curating allocations to protect scarcity are tactical levers that can support margin quality even as volume scales. The brand’s scale and breadth offer flexibility across regions and channels, which can help smooth variability if certain sub-channels see softer traffic, thereby improving visibility into quarterly delivery.

Stock price drivers this quarter

Margin conversation has become a primary driver of sentiment. Last quarter’s gross profit margin of 56.18% and net profit margin of 18.74% set a high bar; commentary around promotions for both HOKA and UGG has led investors to scrutinize how much pricing and markdowns could trim the gross line relative to the prior quarter baseline. With EBIT forecast to rise 4.55% year over year to 514.46 million US dollars, even a modest variance in gross margin can change the slope of earnings against the 2.76 US dollars EPS consensus, potentially magnifying the stock’s reaction.

Revenue composition and channel dynamics are a second determinant of share performance. A greater wholesale mix can add scale but may be more sensitive to account-level inventory normalization and promotional cadence, whereas a higher mix of direct channels can support the margin structure if sell-through remains healthy. For the quarter being reported, investors will parse any color on order trends, cancellation rates, and forward shipping visibility to gauge whether revenue is front-loaded or back-loaded within the season and how that positioning influences the risk to consensus.

Finally, management’s commentary around demand trends for HOKA and UGG will likely set the tone for the next leg of consensus revisions. With revenue expected to be 1.87 billion US dollars and adjusted EPS expected to be 2.76 US dollars, small changes in demand elasticity or promotional intensity could nudge outcomes toward a slight beat or a slight miss. The stock’s near-term path may hinge on whether the company can outline a trajectory that supports mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth while managing spending and promotions so that the earnings bridge remains aligned with expectations.

Analyst Opinions

Bearish views dominate the recent period from January 01, 2026 to January 22, 2026, with prominent firms flagging concerns tied to promotions and the earnings bridge. Piper Sandler downgraded Deckers Outdoor to Underweight and lowered its price target in early January, citing an uptick in discounts across HOKA and UGG and noting that promotional activity appears elevated relative to the recent cycle. The firm argued that promotions may serve as a less constructive customer acquisition mechanism in the current environment, adding that the profitability level near 22.00% this year could moderate as the company continues investing, particularly in HOKA’s brand building and international reach. This framing places greater emphasis on the quality of growth and margin durability, rather than on absolute volume growth.

Bernstein reiterated a Sell rating in January, also emphasizing a cautious stance on the sustainability of growth and the risk that valuation embeds execution at the upper end of historical ranges. The Sell view aligns with concerns that single-digit revenue growth expectations of 7.97% for the reported quarter may be adequate but leave limited room for positive surprise if promotions pressure the gross line or if operating expenses run ahead of plan. The firm’s stance implicitly points to a scenario where mid-single to high-single-digit growth is not sufficient to expand the multiple if margin leverage stalls or if visibility into the next two quarters is not enhanced by the company’s commentary.

Completing the bearish majority, cautious tones from other institutions have highlighted mixed brand performance signals heading into the print, focusing on potential deceleration from previously elevated levels and the prospect that the balance between growth investments and profitability will be tested this quarter. In the aggregate, bearish opinions outnumber bullish in the date window considered, and the core of the argument is consistent: near-term earnings sensitivity to promotions, expense investments needed to extend HOKA’s reach, and a consensus setup that leaves less headroom for upside if gross margin trends soften from the 56.18% level reported last quarter.

Market participants interpreting these views have framed a reasonable test for Deckers Outdoor in this quarter. To refute the bearish setup, investors will want to see clean sell-through for HOKA, balanced channel inventory, and an explicit path to sustain earnings alongside the forecasted 7.97% revenue growth. To the extent management can demonstrate disciplined promotions, stable ticket and mix, and consistent operating expense control, the company would be positioned to defend consensus and guide confidence in the forward trajectory. Otherwise, the weight of the bearish case—rooted in promotions and returns on incremental spending—may continue to define the conversation around near-term valuation.

In summary, the institutional stance within the early-January window is predominantly bearish, grounded in pragmatic concerns about margin resilience and the cost of growth at a time when the consolidated forecast implies single-digit revenue expansion. Against this backdrop, the company’s ability to show stability in gross margin and to articulate a credible investment-return framework for HOKA growth initiatives will likely determine whether sentiment can pivot as results are released on January 29, 2026.