Abstract

TFI International Inc will report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 17, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations for revenue, margins, net profit, and adjusted EPS, and outlines key business drivers and risks shaping the quarter.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to TFI International Inc delivering revenue of 1.91 billion USD for the current quarter, an estimated year-over-year decline of 11.98%, with EBIT at 119.35 million USD (estimated YoY decline of 43.53%), and adjusted EPS at 0.85 (estimated YoY decline of 47.25); margin expectations are for a softer gross profit margin and net profit margin versus last quarter. The company’s core operations in freight, truckload, and logistics remain the primary revenue engine, while logistics shows resilient activity; logistics is viewed as the most promising segment, with last quarter revenue at 386.57 million USD and comparatively steadier demand trends year over year.

Last Quarter Review

TFI International Inc’s third-quarter 2025 results featured revenue of 1.97 billion USD, a gross profit margin of 20.69%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 84.69 million USD, a net profit margin of 4.30%, and adjusted EPS of 1.20, with year-over-year declines across revenue and EPS. A notable highlight was disciplined cost management that helped preserve margins despite softer volumes, although net profit fell 13.74% sequentially. Main business highlights: freight generated 824.06 million USD, truckload 774.74 million USD, logistics 386.57 million USD, and corporate offsets of -16.71 million USD, with freight remaining the largest revenue contributor amid mixed demand conditions.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: diversified network across freight, truckload, and logistics

TFI International Inc’s revenue mix is anchored by its less-than-truckload freight operations, complemented by truckload and a scaled contract logistics platform. The sequential softness into the fourth quarter often reflects seasonal normalization and pricing discipline following peak season, and management has historically prioritized margin over volume in such environments. Given the forecast for a double-digit year-over-year revenue decline, the quarter hinges on maintaining pricing integrity and cost efficiency to offset weaker freight tonnage and truckload spot exposure. The interplay between mix and pricing will be central to gross margin performance, with network density gains and terminal productivity helping stabilize unit economics.

Most promising business: logistics resilience and cross-sell momentum

Logistics delivered 386.57 million USD last quarter, and is positioned to benefit from contract renewals, e-commerce fulfillment, and value-added warehousing services. Even as broader freight markets show softness, logistics tends to display steadier demand and better visibility, aided by multi-year customer agreements and integrated solutions that bundle transportation and warehouse services. The near-term catalysts include operational efficiency within fulfillment centers and leveraging data-driven planning to optimize labor and throughput, which can support margins even in a lower-revenue quarter. The ability to cross-sell logistics services into existing freight and truckload accounts should foster incremental growth opportunities, mitigating cyclical pressure on the asset-heavy operations.

Stock price drivers this quarter: pricing discipline, cost control, and volume normalization

The stock’s near-term reaction will likely track management’s commentary on pricing discipline across LTL and truckload, especially relative to competitor discounts that have surfaced in a softer demand backdrop. Cost control remains a pivotal driver; execution around network optimization, reduced empty miles, and tight overhead management can cushion EBIT and EPS against weaker revenue. Volume normalization trends through January and early February, including any improvement in industrial activity and retail replenishment, will set the tone for the first half of 2026 and influence investor confidence. Clarity on capital allocation, including M&A pacing and balance-sheet leverage, may further shape sentiment if management signals a preference for accretive tuck-ins over larger deals in the current market.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the prevailing stance is cautious rather than outright bullish, reflecting expectations for a challenging quarter with pressure on revenue and earnings metrics. Analysts emphasize that the estimated declines in EBIT and EPS relative to last year, alongside a 11.98% projected revenue drop, indicate persistent freight-market softness and selective pricing strategies that temper near-term upside. The cautious view underscores the importance of margin preservation and improved logistics performance to offset truckload and LTL headwinds, and notes that any signs of stabilization in industrial demand or constructive pricing into spring could provide a more supportive backdrop for the next quarter. Overall, the majority perspective anticipates subdued results with a focus on operational execution to navigate cyclical pressures while maintaining financial discipline.