Following the end of the US government shutdown and the resumption of federal operations, market attention has swiftly shifted to the delayed release of critical economic data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday that the first official report affected by the shutdown—the September nonfarm payrolls—will be released next Thursday, one hour before the US stock market opens. This marks the first key signal for Wall Street after a prolonged "data vacuum," indicating that economic information, previously halted, is now beginning to flow back into the market.
The day after the nonfarm payrolls release, the BLS will also issue a delayed "real earnings" report. Due to the unavailability of October average hourly earnings data, the real earnings metric—a crucial component in measuring changes in consumer purchasing power—could not be released alongside the CPI at the time.
Notably, the only major dataset released on schedule during the shutdown was September's CPI, as this figure is used to calculate annual cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security benefits and thus had to be published without delay.
However, even as the nonfarm payrolls report is set to be released, the full employment report may still exclude the unemployment rate. This is because the unemployment rate is derived from household surveys, which rely on phone interviews and written questionnaires—activities that were disrupted during the shutdown and are difficult to retroactively complete. In contrast, nonfarm payrolls are considered "hard data" sourced from businesses, based on payroll records, making them easier to restore.
Adding to the uncertainty, the US Department of Commerce and its Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) had not released a revised schedule for key indicators such as GDP and PCE as of Friday. This data gap not only weighs on market sentiment but also poses additional policy challenges for the Federal Reserve.
Bank of America economists noted that the shutdown created a "data fog," forcing markets and the Fed to rely on alternative indicators to gauge economic conditions. With the government reopening, "all eyes will be on the incoming flood of data." Some reports, like October's CPI, may never be fully recovered. The BLS relies heavily on in-person data collection for price metrics, which was impossible during the shutdown, and such data cannot be retroactively compiled.
Meanwhile, government officials have stated that delayed reports will be released gradually but have yet to provide a comprehensive timeline. The Labor Secretary emphasized that wage and price data must undergo accuracy reviews before publication, and the White House has stressed the need to ensure the precision of November's figures.
Markets anticipate that the Fed may still receive September, October, and November employment data before its December policy meeting. However, the timely release of these reports depends on the progress of relevant agencies in the coming weeks.
Beyond nonfarm payrolls and CPI, the BLS must also restore reports on import/export prices, job openings, producer prices, and productivity, while the Labor Department handles weekly initial jobless claims. The Commerce Department oversees critical datasets such as personal income and spending (including the Fed's preferred PCE inflation measure), GDP, retail sales, trade balances, and durable goods orders.
The US Census Bureau, a division of the Commerce Department, announced on Friday that it will release delayed reports next week, including August construction spending, factory orders, and international trade data. Construction spending will be published on Monday, followed by factory orders on Tuesday and the trade balance on Wednesday.
In a statement, the Census Bureau said: "The US Census Bureau continues to coordinate with other agencies and the Office of Management and Budget to update the release schedule for economic indicators affected by the recent federal funding lapse. We will provide updates as new release dates are confirmed."