Abstract

ASML Holding NV will release its quarterly results on January 28, 2026 Pre-Market, with investors watching revenue, margins, and EPS guidance amid EUV/DUV demand dynamics and customer capex trends.

Market Forecast

Consensus compiled from the latest forecast indicates ASML Holding NV’s current quarter revenue is projected at $9.50 billion, with an estimated adjusted EPS of $7.41 and EBIT of $3.36 billion; year-over-year growth rates are expected at 05.41% for revenue, 10.01% for EPS, and 08.06% for EBIT. The last quarter’s gross profit margin was 51.63%, and the net profit margin was 28.27%; the company does not provide a gross margin forecast for the current quarter via the tool, so we reference recent margin trends. The main business outlook is anchored by system sales and installed base services, with system sales benefiting from advanced node lithography demand and services supported by field options and upgrades. The most promising segment is system sales, with last quarter revenue of $5.55 billion and stable advanced tool mix poised for sequential improvement given customer tape-outs and backlog conversion.

Last Quarter Review

ASML Holding NV reported prior-quarter revenue of $7.52 billion, a gross margin of 51.63%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $2.13 billion, a net profit margin of 28.27%, and adjusted EPS of $5.48; year-over-year growth rates were 00.65% for revenue, 03.79% for EPS, and 01.11% for EBIT. One key highlight was resilient profitability with gross margin above 50.00%, reflecting a supportive EUV product mix and disciplined cost control. Main business highlights included system sales revenue of $5.55 billion and net revenue from network services and field options of $1.96 billion, showing installed base strength despite timing differences in system shipments.

Current Quarter Outlook

System Sales

System sales form the core of ASML Holding NV’s revenue base and are forecast to drive the quarter’s topline with an estimate of $9.50 billion across the company, implying modest year-over-year expansion. The revenue mix for systems will hinge on EUV platforms deployed at leading-edge logic and memory nodes, while DUV shipments continue to support mature-node capacity additions. Pricing, configuration, and shipment timing can move reported revenue between quarters, but backlog visibility and customer production ramps suggest a return to higher unit recognition in the current period. Margin support from EUV and high-NA related milestones should maintain gross profitability near the low-50.00% range, even as services revenue moderates relative to a heavy install/upgrade quarter.

Installed Base and Services

Installed base activities, captured as network services and field options, provide recurring revenue and margin resilience, and delivered $1.96 billion last quarter. In the current quarter, services are expected to benefit from higher utilization at customer fabs and ongoing field upgrades, though the revenue share may be lower than last quarter if system shipments accelerate. The services mix typically carries attractive margins due to field options and maintenance contracts, which can dampen volatility in consolidated margin profiles. Any fluctuations will primarily reflect the cadence of field upgrades and the post-install learning curve at leading-edge nodes, which has historically resulted in steady, durable revenue contribution.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Share performance will be sensitive to shipment phasing, EUV/DUV order intake, and any updates to annual guidance that contextualize the quarter’s revenue recognition. Investors will parse commentary on high-NA readiness and the timing of early customer adoptions, as these shape medium-term margin trajectories and ASPs for the most advanced systems. The balance between logic and memory demand is also critical: stronger memory capex can lift DUV volumes and services workload, while leading-edge logic ramps sustain EUV momentum. Deviations from the $9.50 billion revenue estimate or the $7.41 EPS forecast, along with changes in order intake or backlog conversion, will likely drive near-term stock reactions.

Analyst Opinions

The majority of recent institutional commentary has been constructive, highlighting improving shipment cadence and supportive margin mix into the quarter. Several well-followed analysts point to continued demand for advanced lithography tools and stability in installed base monetization, supporting the consensus revenue estimate of $9.50 billion and the EPS estimate of $7.41. Bullish views emphasize backlog conversion, improving EUV productivity at customers, and the durability of services as a margin anchor. The stance is predominantly bullish, with positive outlooks outnumbering cautious takes, and the core argument centers on consistent execution against delivery schedules and stable pricing dynamics that underpin mid-single-digit revenue growth and double-digit EPS growth expectations for the current quarter.