China Fortune Securities has released a research report indicating that, against the backdrop of recovering asset growth among affluent individuals, it is optimistic about the continuation of the recovery trend in premium consumption. The firm recommends focusing on high-end commercial real estate stocks such as CHINA RES MIXC (01209), HANG LUNG PPT (00101), and SWIREPROPERTIES (01972), as well as premium consumption stocks including LAOPU GOLD (06181), MAO GEPING (01318), and Xirui (02507). Key viewpoints from China Fortune Securities are as follows:
The high-end consumer market has generally stabilized and rebounded, with strong recovery momentum in Greater China. Starting in the second half of 2025, major luxury groups have seen significant improvements in sales growth rates in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan). Groups such as LVMH and Richemont reported positive growth for the first time after seven consecutive quarters. The improvement in the Chinese market has become a key variable in the performance recovery of global luxury groups, with major brands generally optimistic about the long-term potential of the Chinese market.
Domestic high-end shopping mall retail sales growth also accelerated significantly in the second half of the year. In 2025, HANG LUNG PPT's mainland shopping mall tenant retail sales increased by 4% year-on-year, with average daily foot traffic reaching a record high. Most of SWIREPROPERTIES' shopping malls experienced significant acceleration in the second half of the year, with Shanghai's兴业太古汇 retail sales surging by 49.6%, driven by the iconic "Louis" project.
Wealth effects are driving the rebound in premium consumer demand, with high-frequency indicators confirming the recovery. Indicators such as asset growth rates of wealthy individuals, Hainan offshore duty-free data, Macau gaming industry data, and upscale hotel data can be used for high-frequency tracking of premium consumption. Second-hand luxury data reflects demand among the general population and moves in the same direction as premium consumption. Quarterly performance of luxury companies and retail sales growth in high-end commercial districts (such as HANG LUNG PPT and SWIREPROPERTIES) can serve as lagging indicators for premium consumption trends.
Among these, the asset growth rate of wealthy individuals (t-1 period) has leading predictive value for luxury performance. As stock market and investment returns improve, the consumption willingness of high-net-worth individuals has substantially recovered, as evidenced by the positive growth in Swiss watch exports to China, the quarter-on-quarter acceleration in Macau's gross gaming revenue recovery, and the increase in RevPAR for upscale hotels.
Risk warnings include fluctuations in the macroeconomy and consumer confidence, changes in policy and regulatory environments, and risks related to industry competition and substitution.