Abstract

The Western Union Company will report quarterly results on February 20, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview distills consensus expectations, recent performance, and near-term drivers shaping revenue, margins, net income, and adjusted EPS.

Market Forecast

Consensus expects The Western Union Company to generate approximately 1.04 billion in US dollars in revenue this quarter, implying 1.90% year-over-year growth, with adjusted EPS around 0.43 (up 3.27% year-over-year) and EBIT near 200.19 million (up 3.26% year-over-year). No formal company guidance for gross profit margin or net profit margin was disclosed for the quarter, so margin expectations are anchored to recent trends rather than explicit forecasts. The main business, Consumer Money Transfer, remains the dominant contributor and is expected to track modest growth consistent with company-wide projections as management balances pricing, promotional tactics, and corridor mix to support volume and ticket size. The most promising segment is Consumer Services, which remains smaller in revenue terms but is positioned to benefit from product enhancements and higher-value monetization; segment-level year-over-year data was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, The Western Union Company delivered revenue of 1.03 billion in US dollars, a gross profit margin of 37.71%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 140.00 million, a net profit margin of 13.52%, and adjusted EPS of 0.47, which increased 2.17% year-over-year, while total revenue decreased 0.33% year-over-year. A notable highlight was net profit’s quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.33%, reflecting disciplined cost execution and operating leverage despite softer year-over-year revenue. The main business breakdown showed Consumer Money Transfer revenue at 878.00 million and Consumer Services revenue at 154.60 million; company-wide revenue declined 0.33% year-over-year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Consumer Money Transfer

Consumer Money Transfer remains central to near-term performance with an expected modest uplift in top-line consistent with the 1.90% year-over-year revenue increase implied by consensus. A crucial determinant is transaction volume versus average principal per transaction, which can vary by corridor mix and promotion intensity; management’s choices here influence pricing realization and elasticity. Last quarter’s gross profit margin of 37.71% provides a recent baseline; if pricing and mix hold, margin resilience could persist even as promotional activity supports volume. Operating discipline and incremental efficiencies should carry forward, which is consistent with quarter-on-quarter net profit momentum the company achieved last quarter. However, if corridor mix tilts toward lower-fee origination or higher-cost payout routes, the gross margin could be pressured even without headline volume softness.

While total company revenue declined 0.33% year-over-year in the prior quarter, EBIT performance of 206.20 million and adjusted EPS of 0.47 were supported by expense control and operating leverage. For the current quarter, consensus EBIT of 200.19 million and adjusted EPS of 0.43 suggest minor normalization versus last quarter’s upside, but still imply year-over-year growth of 3.26% and 3.27%, respectively. Observers will watch whether ticket sizes moderate following prior promotions or whether increased digital enrollments translate to sustained activity. The balance between cash payouts and digital-to-digital flows, as well as customer retention in key corridors, will contribute to the quarter’s revenue realization and margin profile.

Most Promising Business: Consumer Services

Consumer Services, at 154.60 million in revenue last quarter, is smaller than Consumer Money Transfer but offers leverage through product enhancements and service bundling. This segment’s outlook is tied to increasing adoption of higher-value services, improved monetization pathways, and deepening engagement among existing customers. With consensus calling for modest growth at the consolidated level, incremental contributions from Consumer Services can help diversify revenue streams away from pure transfer fees. Product expansion that integrates more streamlined experiences could increase frequency of use, enhance retention, and lift average revenue per customer.

Pricing discipline remains essential, as higher-value services typically command better margins than basic transfer activity. The segment could benefit from joining elements of loyalty, stored-value or account features, and targeted offers to improve customer lifetime value. Execution risk resides in ensuring frictionless onboarding and customer service quality, particularly in markets where trust and reliability heavily influence usage. Although segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed, this business is likely to be a focal point for long-term earnings quality as management aligns go-to-market tactics with customer needs and raises service attach rates over time.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Delivery versus consensus on revenue and adjusted EPS will be the primary catalyst for share price reaction around the print, with a focus on whether the top-line reaches approximately 1.04 billion and adjusted EPS lands near 0.43. Margin dynamics—especially whether gross profit margin trends around the recent 37.71% baseline or shows signs of expansion—will be scrutinized given last quarter’s quarter-on-quarter net profit momentum. Investors will also watch the operating expense trajectory and the sustainability of EBIT near 200.19 million, looking for signals that cost actions are maintaining their effectiveness despite modest top-line growth.

Capital structure and liquidity updates factor into sentiment as well. The recently signed 800.00 million unsecured term loan agreement enhances liquidity and financial flexibility, but it also introduces considerations around interest expense and balance sheet posture; monitoring its impact on net interest and cash generation will be important. Dividend continuity remains a secondary signaling mechanism for stability, yet the market is more likely to react to operational indicators and revenue quality. Finally, execution in digital onboarding, customer retention, and product activation—especially within Consumer Services—will be key qualitative drivers that inform the trajectory of earnings beyond the current quarter.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent institutional commentary leans bearish. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage on The Western Union Company with an Underweight rating and a 9 price target on January 27, 2026, reflecting skepticism that a durable revenue growth acceleration is imminent. Their stance aligns with last quarter’s slight year-over-year revenue decline of 0.33% alongside solid margin and EPS execution, implying a belief that earnings quality has been supported more by cost control than broad-based top-line expansion. In this context, consensus for this quarter’s revenue growth of 1.90% and adjusted EPS growth of 3.27% provides a measured improvement, but may not be sufficient to change underweight views unless the company demonstrates clearer progress in sustaining higher revenue growth across core corridors.

The bearish perspective focuses on the need for evidence that recent operating improvements can translate into a consistently expanding revenue base. Observers want to see that product enhancements and customer engagement strategies in Consumer Services can deliver material uplift at scale and that any promotional elasticity in Consumer Money Transfer can be managed without eroding margin quality. The debate also includes the degree to which recent capital moves, such as the unsecured term loan, can support targeted investments without compromising earnings through higher net interest costs. From this vantage point, a clean beat on both revenue and adjusted EPS, coupled with commentary that points to durable drivers of top-line growth, would be required to challenge the prevailing cautious stance.

Within the consensus framework, a measured quarter could still meet expectations but fail to reset sentiment if investors judge growth to be incremental rather than inflecting. The bearish view anticipates that the market will look beyond headline figures, asking whether execution in segment strategy—particularly Consumer Services—can create new avenues for monetization and lift consolidated growth above low-single-digit rates. If The Western Union Company offers detailed evidence of sustainable volume expansion, improved ticket sizes without heavy promotions, and progressing service attach rates, it could begin to neutralize skepticism. Until that proof is more visible in reported numbers and forward commentary, bearish opinions are likely to remain the majority among recently published institutional views.