Market Barely Holds Above 4000 Points

Deep News
Mar 19

Yesterday's rebound appears to have been a temporary pause in the ongoing decline. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 4000-point level during the session, only managing to hold above it by the close. Among the major broad-based indices, the ChiNext Index saw the smallest decline, dropping 1.11%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39%. The indices with the largest losses were the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index, down 3.33%, and the Micro-Cap Stock Index, down 2.96%.

In the Shenwan primary industry indices, coal led the gains, rising 1.82%, followed by petroleum and petrochemicals, up 1.34%, and utilities, up 0.34%. The worst performers were nonferrous metals, down 6.10%, steel, down 4.08%, and basic chemicals, down 3.75%.

Only 492 individual stocks advanced, while 4,668 declined. The median stock performance was a loss of 2.62%. During the session, 110 stocks, including Mindray Medical, China Galaxy Securities, OmniVision Technologies, Changan Automobile, United Imaging Healthcare, Air China Cargo, Gujing Distillery, Vanke A, Huada Jiutian, and iSoftStone, hit new one-year lows. Among these, eight stocks, including Air China Cargo, Hanshow Technology, IBI Ophthalmology, Fuling Plastic, Zhenbaodao, *ST Yanshi, *ST Wanfang, and *ST Jinglun, reached new all-time lows.

Conversely, 76 stocks hit new one-year highs during the session, including China Shenhua Energy, Shuanghui Development, GenScript ProBio, RemeGen, China Merchants Port, Zhongfu Shenying Carbon, Shaanxi Energy, Huadian Energy, Intco Medical, and *ST Xinchao. Seventeen of these, including China Shenhua Energy, GenScript ProBio, RemeGen, Zhongfu Shenying Carbon, *ST Xinchao, Nanya New Material, Hongjing Technology, Litong Electronics, Wankai New Materials, and Qiangrui Technology, reached new all-time highs.

Seventeen stocks, including Hongqiao Holding, Zhenhua Chemical, ST Easy Buy, Xinjinlu, Limin Chemical, ST Chenming, ST Jiaao, and Weiling Shares, fell by the daily limit. Thirty-six stocks, including CNPC Capital, Huadian Energy, *ST Xinchao, Guangdong Electric Power, Andon Health, Dongfang New Energy, Litong Electronics, Meili Cloud, Auroda, and Lotus Holdings, rose by the daily limit.

The average decline for 358 convertible bonds was 2.02%, while their underlying stocks fell by an average of 2.43%. The main portfolio of 20 convertible bonds saw an average decline of 1.85%, with their underlying stocks down 2.35% on average. No transactions were made today, and the total account value decreased by 1.84%.

Although today's losses were significant, over the 11 years of daily accounting since retirement, there have been 143 days with declines exceeding 1.84%, and 71 days with losses greater than today's. It is likely that today's drop will be forgotten soon. Even the worst loss, which required checking records to confirm, occurred on January 4, 2016, during the market circuit breaker, when the account lost 7.92%.

Recently, an article discussed free cash flow ETFs and the China Free Cash Flow Index, noting that only two years of data were initially available. A reader later pointed out that historical data could be downloaded from the index provider's website. Upon checking, complete historical data was indeed available, and it was also found in the Choice database. For clarity, only the total return index was retained, though its daily updates are delayed. Data as of yesterday, March 18, shows that the returns and Sharpe ratios of the CSI Free Cash Flow Index and the China Free Cash Flow Index are similar, but their maximum drawdowns differ significantly.

The China Free Cash Flow Index experienced a maximum drawdown of over 50%, occurring from the peak on June 12, 2015, to the trough on January 28, 2016—a period of just over six months. During the same time, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 48.60%. Such extreme conditions are unlikely to recur. Moreover, an investment made at the beginning of 2015, rather than at the June peak, would have yielded a return of 16.71% for the year, followed by a slight decline of 1.74% in 2016.

ETFs tracking both the CSI Free Cash Flow Index and the China Free Cash Flow Index are offered by various fund companies. Short-term performance is uncertain; for instance, these indices have declined for five consecutive days, even falling further during yesterday's market rebound. However, long-term prospects remain favorable. This database will continue to monitor their performance, and suggestions for other broadly-based smart-beta funds with strong long-term track records are welcome.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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