过去一个月，收益率曲线已显著趋平。这是一个信号，表明交易员可能越来越担心美联储的两个目标正日益相互冲突。目前，10年期国债收益率仅比2年期收益率高出约43个基点。这一利差较2月中旬的约75个基点有所收窄，也是自去年春季以来最小的利差水平之一。收益率曲线倒挂——即2年期与10年期国债收益率利差转为负值——是华尔街预示经济衰退即将到来的经典信号。目前我们尚未到达那一步。但近期几周出现的趋平态势，在周三美联储会议后急剧加速。这证明交易员日益相信，高通胀将限制美联储通过降息来应对经济脆弱性的操作空间——而这可能会以牺牲未来经济增长为代价。
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