On May 26, OEXN noted that according to a Cointelegraph report, Swissblock's Bitcoin Risk Index has risen to 33/100, entering a relatively high-risk zone. The institution indicated that following the deterioration in spot ETF fund flows, the market's ability to absorb buying has weakened. Bitcoin's fluctuations around the $77,000 level have become more susceptible to changes in institutional capital.
From a capital flow perspective, OEXN believes the short-term pressure on Bitcoin primarily stems from ongoing ETF net outflows. Data from Glassnode shows that since May 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows on nearly every trading day, signaling institutional selling for over two weeks. This continuous outflow increases supply-side pressure, while demand has not yet shown equivalent absorption capacity.
The report suggests that the strong accumulation seen in March and April has shifted to distribution in May, with the risk index rising in tandem with ETF flows. Analysts believe that when the risk index and fund flows deteriorate simultaneously, even if prices remain within a range, they may conceal heightened sensitivity to downside moves, especially in the absence of new capital inflows to drive the market.
Bitcoin is currently still trading within a broad range established over approximately four months. Short-term price elasticity has not completely vanished, but the capital structure has become more selective. If ETF redemptions slow, the market may reassess support levels. Should outflows persist, selling pressure during any rebound is likely to become more pronounced, making trading volume and on-chain inflow data worth monitoring concurrently.
Meanwhile, the rise in the risk index does not necessarily imply an immediate weakening of prices. It serves more as a reminder of positioning congestion and demand absorption capacity. If the market lacks fresh incremental capital, short-term rebounds may rely more heavily on short covering. Should stablecoin liquidity improve and drive a return of spot buying, defensive strength at the bottom of the range would also strengthen accordingly.
OEXN believes that Bitcoin needs to confirm whether institutional capital is shifting from persistent outflows to stability. For the digital asset market, prices holding key zones is only a surface-level signal. ETF demand, the patience of long-term holders, and stablecoin liquidity are more critical dimensions to observe. OEXN will continue to monitor marginal changes in capital flows.