During Asian trading hours on Friday, March 27, the spot price of international gold stood at 985.50 yuan per gram, marking an increase of 12.08 yuan from the previous session, a rise of 1.24%. However, intraday movements showed signs of a weak rebound. The day's opening price was reported at 975.61 yuan per gram, with the price reaching a high of 986.77 yuan and a low of 972.44 yuan during the session.
As of the afternoon of March 26, international spot gold was fluctuating within the range of $4,430 to $4,450 per ounce, experiencing a slight decline of approximately 1% compared to the previous day. Concurrently, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note climbed to around 4.37%, while the U.S. dollar index maintained its strength, applying persistent downward pressure on the gold price.
The prevailing market consensus suggests that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are unlikely to pivot towards monetary easing in the short term. The "higher for longer" interest rate narrative continues to dominate. Although occasional intraday rebounds have occurred, both trading volume and momentum have remained lackluster, indicating that bullish confidence has not yet been restored. Recent economic data and geopolitical developments collectively point to persistent inflationary pressures, suggesting that a policy shift is still some time away.
From a fundamental pricing perspective, the trajectory of the bond market remains a critical determinant for major asset allocation decisions. As U.S. Treasury yields approach the 4.4% threshold and oscillate within the 4.35%-4.37% range, the yield comparison between assets has shifted. Bonds now offer a certain coupon return, whereas gold, as a non-yielding asset, relies solely on capital appreciation. This dynamic has significantly increased the opportunity cost of holding gold. As long as expectations for "higher rates for a longer period" remain unchallenged, gold will struggle to gather sustained upward momentum.
It is noteworthy that the market's reaction to Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts is evolving differently for gold. Typically, such tensions would boost safe-haven assets. However, the current rise in oil prices is fueling inflation expectations, which in turn pressures central banks to maintain a hawkish stance. This counter-intuitive phenomenon indicates that, in the current market environment, interest rate considerations have largely overshadowed traditional safe-haven logic, preventing geopolitical risks from translating into upward momentum for gold prices as might be expected.
From a technical analysis perspective, the formation of multiple top patterns at high price levels has intensified bearish sentiment in the gold market. Short-term moving averages have begun to turn downward, and the MACD indicator is showing signs of a bearish crossover, both suggesting potential for further near-term declines. If the gold price fails to reclaim key resistance levels promptly, the downward trend could gain further strength.
Looking at the daily chart, gold has faced repeated rejection around the $4,600 per ounce level, which is gradually solidifying into a significant resistance zone. The repeated failure to break higher has itself reinforced market expectations for selling pressure.
The current candlestick structure indicates that gold remains in a phase of high-level consolidation. While there is some support below, selling pressure above is evident, and the overall bearish technical setup has not undergone a substantive change. Until U.S. Treasury yields show a clear retreat, conditions are lacking for a renewed strengthening of gold.
Looking ahead, gold is likely to maintain its high-level consolidation pattern in the short term. The $4,600 level remains a key resistance point overhead, while support may be tested in the $4,200-$4,300 range. The most critical variable for the market remains the movement of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. A decline below 4.2% could pave the way for a阶段性反弹 in gold prices. Conversely, if yields continue to climb, gold will likely face further downward pressure.