Abstract

Lumentum will report fiscal Q2 2026 results on February 03, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes last quarter’s performance and the company’s guidance alongside market and institutional expectations for revenue, margins, net profit, and adjusted EPS.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company-derived expectations point to this quarter’s revenue of USD 646.68 million, gross profit margin assumptions aligned with the recent 37.65%, net profit or net margin tracking near the latest net profit margin of 0.79%, and adjusted EPS estimated at USD 1.40 with year-over-year growth of 2.90%. The main business highlights center on components and systems sales, with components contributing USD 379.20 million and systems contributing USD 154.60 million last quarter, underpinned by stable demand trends. The most promising segment is components at USD 379.20 million; year-over-year performance was cited as improving in forecasts, though discrete YoY by segment was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

Lumentum’s prior quarter delivered revenue of USD 533.80 million, gross profit margin of 37.65%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 4.20 million, net profit margin of 0.79%, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.10 with an actual year-over-year increase of 5.11%. An operational highlight was EBIT of USD 99.80 million, which exceeded prior estimates and reflected disciplined cost control and product mix execution. Main business revenue mix was components at USD 379.20 million and systems at USD 154.60 million; year-over-year by segment was not disclosed, but the revenue split signaled a components-led contribution.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Components and Systems

The core drivers in the current quarter remain components and systems. The components segment, which accounted for USD 379.20 million last quarter, is positioned to anchor the topline given ongoing demand from communications and industrial customers and its comparatively larger share of total revenue. Continued execution on cost management and product mix should sustain margins near recent levels, with gross profit margin assumptions guided by the prior quarter’s 37.65%. Systems, at USD 154.60 million last quarter, supports diversification and incremental opportunities; however, its smaller scale implies less contribution to headline results. Taken together, the expected revenue of USD 646.68 million suggests moderate sequential expansion and modest year-over-year growth of 0.66%, consistent with a measured demand backdrop and steady order patterns across key end markets.

Most Promising Business: Components

The components portfolio appears to be the most promising this quarter due to breadth across communications, datacom, and industrial applications and its capacity to deliver incremental volume and contribution margin. With components representing USD 379.20 million last quarter and forming the majority of the revenue base, even incremental unit growth or share gains can materially influence quarterly outcomes. Pricing discipline and mix, particularly in higher-performance optical modules and laser components, are potential levers to cushion gross margin performance. Forecast commentary indicates improving year-over-year trends in the consolidated profile, aligning with the EPS estimate of USD 1.40 and EBIT forecast of USD 134.30 million, which implies operational stability even as the overall growth rate remains modest.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Earnings per share and margin outcomes will likely be pivotal for the stock reaction. The market will watch whether adjusted EPS meets the USD 1.40 estimate and whether gross profit margin holds around 37.65%, as stable margins serve as a confirmation of cost discipline and product mix execution. Net profit margin, which stood at 0.79% last quarter, will be scrutinized for improvement alongside EBIT progression toward the USD 134.30 million estimate, as this would indicate operating leverage despite cautious revenue growth. Execution in the components segment is critical, as its scale and mix influence both profitability and headline revenue, while systems performance offers incremental upside but carries less weight; any visible uplift in components demand, particularly tied to communications infrastructure and datacenter build-outs, could support a constructive post-report narrative.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent institutional commentary has been cautiously positive, with references to optical and photonics suppliers benefiting from secular technology investment and datacenter-related build-outs. Notably, portfolio managers have cited Lumentum among companies positioned to serve data center infrastructure and related technology components, aligning with measured optimism around AI-related capital expenditures and communications upgrades. In this context, the majority view leans constructive, expecting Lumentum to meet or slightly exceed conservative forecasts on revenue and adjusted EPS, supported by disciplined cost management and product mix. The cautious tone reflects recognition of moderate headline growth rates and margin sensitivities, yet analysts emphasize potential upside if components demand trends show resilience and EBIT tracks toward USD 134.30 million, reinforcing the narrative of stable execution into February 03, 2026 Post Market.