Abstract

Resideo Technologies, Inc. will release its quarterly results on February 24, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to revenue around $1.89 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.52; this preview reviews last quarter’s margin profile, segment mix, and the forward balance between Distribution and Controls/Sensing execution.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the upcoming quarter points to total revenue of $1.89 billion, adjusted EPS of about $0.52, and EBIT of $151.00 million; on a year-over-year basis, revenue is expected to advance by 2.83%, EPS to decline by 8.72%, and EBIT to edge up by 0.67%. There is no explicit consensus for gross margin or net margin in the collected forecast, though last quarter’s margin context provides a backdrop for expectations.

The main business is split between a large-scale distribution channel and a controls-and-sensing products portfolio; consensus suggests a steady revenue cadence at the group level with a focus on margin stability supported by product mix and cost discipline. The segment with the most promising medium-term potential is the Controls and Sensing Products portfolio, which posted $661.00 million in revenue in the last reported quarter; year-over-year growth for this segment was not disclosed in the available data, but management’s recent portfolio simplification underscores continued emphasis here.

Last Quarter Review

In the last reported quarter, Resideo Technologies, Inc. delivered $1.86 billion in revenue (+1.97% year over year), a gross profit margin of 29.83%, GAAP net profit attributable to the company of $156.00 million (net profit margin 8.37%), and adjusted EPS of $0.89 (+53.45% year over year).

A notable business development during the period was the announced sale of the Grid Services demand response business to EnergyHub on December 3, 2025, with the company indicating no material impact on its 2025 outlook; the move sharpened focus on residential controls and sensing. By segment, the distribution channel generated $1.20 billion in revenue and the products portfolio contributed $661.00 million; year-over-year growth by segment was not available in the collected figures, though the mix delivered a consolidated gross margin just under 30%.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Distribution Channel Dynamics

The distribution arm remains the revenue anchor given its scale and breadth of offerings, and it often sets the tone for top-line variability in seasonally active periods. In the near term, expectations hinge on normalizing sell-through and replenishment cycles, the cadence of project activity flowing through distributors, and sustained vendor program support. With consensus revenue for the group at $1.89 billion and only a modest year-over-year step-up implied, the distribution channel likely faces a balanced setup: stable volume with limited price inflation tailwinds but better availability and steadier logistics relative to prior volatility.

Margins within distribution tend to be thinner than in proprietary products, so consolidated profitability this quarter will be acutely sensitive to mix effects between distribution and products. A modest shift toward proprietary SKU sell-through or a richer accessories mix could support gross margin resilience near the ~30% area seen last quarter, while a heavier tilt toward pure pass-through distribution lines would lean the other way. Operating expense leverage is another lever; even when gross margin is range-bound, tight cost control across warehousing, freight, and field operations can protect EBIT. With EBIT forecast at $151.00 million (+0.67% year over year) on a small revenue gain, the market appears to be ascribing some efficiency carryover from recent execution.

Working-capital discipline in distribution is a watch-point that can translate into optical swings in earnings quality. If inventory is kept aligned with steady demand and receivables remain well-managed, free cash flow conversion can better track EBIT despite a flat margin outlook. Conversely, even moderate inventory builds or elongated receivable cycles could compress conversion, which investors may extrapolate into near-term pressure on capital allocation flexibility. Any qualitative commentary on order momentum, backlog health, or early-quarter run-rates will likely influence how investors triangulate the next two quarters for the channel.

Controls and Sensing Products Momentum

The controls and sensing portfolio positions the company for margin accretion through higher value content and attach rates. The post-divestment focus on residential controls and sensing indicates an intent to channel resources into platforms with better gross margin characteristics and clearer product roadmaps. With $661.00 million in revenue in the last reported quarter and a favorable margin profile relative to distribution, even modest sequential growth here can meaningfully influence consolidated gross margin and EPS.

Consensus for the quarter implies overall EPS of around $0.52, down 8.72% year over year, which embeds conservatism around price-mix and expense timing despite stable revenue growth. For EPS to meet or exceed this bar, the controls and sensing portfolio will likely need to deliver solid unit volumes in core categories and incremental mix into higher-margin SKUs. Cost execution also matters: material input costs, warranty incidence, and productivity gains in manufacturing can all nudge gross margin by tens of basis points, which translates into noticeable EPS differences at current revenue scale.

On the demand side, the products portfolio tends to benefit when channel partners work down older inventory and resume normalized stock levels for current-generation devices. If replenishment patterns continue to normalize and sell-through holds, the product business could close the quarter with a healthier mix and less discount reliance, supporting gross margin stability. Strategic simplification—illustrated by the exit of the Grid Services demand response unit—reduces management bandwidth drag and helps concentrate go-to-market efforts on the highest-margin categories. Execution risk remains in aligning product availability, firmware cycles, and field support, but the setup appears constructive for sustaining last quarter’s near-30% gross margin at the group level if mix cooperates.

Stock Price Swing Factors This Quarter

Three line items are poised to drive share-price volatility around the print: revenue versus the $1.89 billion consensus, gross margin trajectory relative to the 29.83% baseline, and adjusted EPS against the ~$0.52 marker. Given the EPS consensus implies an 8.72% year-over-year decline, even an in-line revenue result could translate to a favorable reaction if gross margin or operating cost control yield a better-than-expected EPS outcome. Conversely, a marginal shortfall in revenue combined with any erosion in product mix could amplify the EPS effect, as fixed-cost absorption in both manufacturing and distribution tends to magnify small top-line variances.

Segment color will be closely parsed. Stronger-than-expected performance in controls and sensing would likely be read as margin-supportive and indicative of pricing and mix durability, while a distribution-led beat might carry a more neutral margin implication unless accompanied by positive commentary on rebate discipline and operating cost leverage. Investors may also pay attention to sequential comparisons in GAAP net income after last quarter’s sharp quarter-on-quarter rebound in net profit (+118.91%), which set a high bar for sequential momentum even if underlying year-over-year comparisons remain modest.

Capital allocation and portfolio updates can add an extra layer to the equity story. The exit from Grid Services in December 2025 signaled a more focused portfolio, and any indications of reinvestment into core controls/sensing platforms, inorganic tuck-ins, or balance-sheet priorities could influence valuation narratives. Without specific guidance embedded in the collected data, the most immediate stock response will likely hinge on the quality of the earnings mix—specifically, how much of EBIT comes from sustainable margin improvement versus transitory cost items—and on how management frames the early-2026 demand environment for both products and distribution.

Analyst Opinions

Among the collected views over the last six months, bullish opinions dominate. The bullish-to-bearish ratio is 100% to 0% based on available rating commentary.

A prominent example is Oppenheimer, which reaffirmed a Buy rating on Resideo Technologies, Inc. with a $48.00 price target within the period under review. The reiterated stance aligns with a market view that the company’s earnings profile can remain resilient through a combination of portfolio focus and operational execution. From the lens of this quarter’s setup—revenue forecast at $1.89 billion (+2.83% year over year), EBIT nudging higher (+0.67% year over year), and EPS consolidating near $0.52—bullish analysts are likely looking for confirmation that gross margin can hold near the recent 29.83% level and that expense discipline can offset a softer EPS comparison.

The bullish case emphasizes that mix can be a near-term tailwind. If the controls and sensing portfolio maintains a healthy run-rate and the distribution channel avoids excessive discounting to drive volume, consolidated profitability should track toward the mid- to high-end of the implied margin range embedded in consensus. The decision to sell the Grid Services unit in December 2025, accompanied by management’s indication of no material effect on the 2025 outlook, also supports a cleaner focus on core categories where the company can scale with better visibility. A consistent message on prioritizing returns in the core products franchise and keeping the distribution engine efficient is likely what keeps buy-side and sell-side views constructive.

Another reason bullish views are holding up is the asymmetry around EPS consensus. With the Street modeling an 8.72% year-over-year decline in EPS, the bar is not set aggressively high; this can create positive skew if management demonstrates even modest sequential improvement in product margins or delivers incremental operating leverage. Commentary that points to stable demand, normalized channel inventories, and continued cost control could help investors look past a less favorable EPS comparison and refocus on 2026 earnings power. Conversely, a shortfall on revenue accompanied by margin pressure would challenge the bullish narrative, but the majority of the recent commentary leans toward the company managing through these headwinds with balanced execution.

Overall, current institutional views skew positive, anchored by expectations that the revenue base can expand low-single digits year over year while margin stewardship preserves a path to consistent EBIT. For this print, the key validation points for the bullish side are: revenue in line to slightly above $1.89 billion, gross margin near or better than last quarter’s 29.83%, and adjusted EPS at or above the ~$0.52 mark. Clear signals about focusing investment behind controls and sensing products, alongside stable distribution economics, would likely reinforce the constructive stance exemplified by the reaffirmed Buy rating and its $48.00 price target.