Abstract

YPF SA will release its fourth-quarter results on February 26, 2026 Post Market; this preview outlines consensus revenue, margin, and EPS expectations, evaluates last quarter’s performance and segment trends, and frames what investors should watch most in the upcoming print.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s forecast field, total revenue for the current quarter is estimated at $4.62 billion with a year-over-year forecast decline of 4.54%, EBIT is projected at $0.51 billion with an estimated YoY decline of 22.74%, and EPS is forecast at -$0.58 with an estimated YoY decline of 159.48%. Consolidated margin guidance in the dataset implies pressure, but specific gross profit margin and net profit margin forecasts for the quarter are not provided; adjusted EPS is not broken out separately in the forecast field. Main business highlights suggest downstream fuels and marketing remain the largest revenue contributor, with exploration and production and gas & power providing diversified cash flow support. The most promising segment in the near term is downstream, with revenue of $15.89 billion last quarter and improving product mix potential; YoY growth specifics for each segment are not included in the dataset.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, YPF SA reported revenue of $4.64 billion, a gross profit margin of 28.46%, net profit attributable to the parent company of -$2.58 billion, a net profit margin of -4.07%, and adjusted EPS of $0.40, with year-over-year revenue down 5.96%, EBIT down 12.03%, and adjusted EPS down 69.70%. A notable operational highlight was EBIT of $0.52 billion that exceeded estimates, indicating resilient operating performance despite softer pricing and cost inflation. Main business highlights show downstream revenue of $15.89 billion, exploration and production at $8.28 billion, gas and electricity at $3.02 billion, corporate and other at $1.88 billion, with a consolidation adjustment of -$9.77 billion; YoY growth by segment was not provided.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Downstream fuels and marketing

Downstream remains the anchor for revenue scale and near-term cash generation. The forecasted decline in consolidated revenue by 4.54% points to volume normalization and potential pricing recalibration after domestic price pass-through periods, while the lack of explicit margin guidance suggests investors should focus on product spreads between diesel, gasoline, and petrochemical derivatives. The previous quarter’s gross margin of 28.46% sets a relevant benchmark; sustaining margins will depend on crude acquisition costs versus retail and wholesale price realizations. Inventory valuation effects and refinery utilization rates could materially influence EBIT translation for the quarter, particularly if crack spreads have compressed relative to mid-2025 levels.

Exploration and production

The production segment’s earnings sensitivity to realized oil and gas prices is central this quarter, especially given the forecast EBIT decline of 22.74%. If lifting costs and depreciation remain stable, lower commodity realizations would more quickly transmit to segment EBIT than to downstream, where pricing mechanisms can lag. The prior quarter’s operating resilience suggests field productivity and cost controls helped offset weaker pricing; maintaining that balance will be critical. Any expansion in unconventional output or efficiency gains in Vaca Muerta may provide partial relief, but the consolidated net margin was -4.07% last quarter, underscoring that realized prices and FX dynamics can swing the bottom line.

Gas and power

Gas and electricity revenue of $3.02 billion in the prior period underlines the segment’s contribution to diversification. Seasonal demand patterns, contracted tariffs, and the currency environment typically determine contribution stability. With consolidated EPS expected at -$0.58 for the quarter, cash flow predictability from gas and power can buffer volatility in upstream and downstream. However, if tariffs or input costs have shifted, gross margin carry-through could be narrower than the historical average, making the segment supportive rather than a driver of upside in the near-term print.

Factors most impacting the stock price this quarter

Earnings sensitivity to margins stands out: a 28.46% gross margin last quarter offers a baseline, but if crack spreads and refining yields compress, EBIT translation will fall faster, which is consistent with the forecast YoY decline of 22.74%. Net profit trajectory is also key, after a net margin of -4.07% in the prior quarter and consensus for negative EPS; any sign of stabilization in net profitability could change sentiment. Finally, revenue trajectory relative to the $4.62 billion estimate will shape the reaction; modest beats in revenue paired with stronger-than-expected margins have historically mitigated EPS pressure.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent previews and commentary, the majority view is cautious, pointing to a likely revenue decline of 4.54% and negative EPS for the quarter, with focus on refining margins and realized prices in upstream. The cautious camp argues that the quarter’s drivers—crack spread compression, FX translation effects, and moderated domestic price adjustments—skew risk toward margin pressure. In this context, watchers highlight EBIT resilience last quarter relative to expectations ($0.52 billion actual vs. $0.46 billion estimate) as a supportive data point, but note that forecast EBIT at $0.51 billion still implies a 22.74% YoY drop. This lens suggests investors will weigh the mix of downstream volumes, refinery utilization, and upstream price realizations to judge whether consolidated margins can stabilize while revenue trends remain weaker year over year.