The space industry, encompassing rocket manufacturing, satellite hardware, and ground terminal equipment, is at an inflection point poised for historic, large-scale expansion.

According to trading desk reports, Goldman Sachs issued a new global technology research note on Tuesday, dramatically raising its base case forecast for Low Earth Orbit satellite installations in 2031 from 42,000 to 305,000 units, an increase exceeding 634%. This rare magnitude of forecast revision signals Wall Street's repricing of the LEO satellite industry's potential scale.

What's Driving the Forecast Revision

The core rationale for the upward revision is not a linear extension of satellite internet demand, but the inclusion of an entirely new application scenario: space-based data centers.

Goldman Sachs projects that space data centers will replace satellite internet as the primary growth engine for global LEO installations after 2029, with their share rising from zero to 63% by that year and further climbing to 79% by 2031. Concurrently, the large-scale entry of Chinese satellite operators is noted as a significant structural variable that cannot be ignored.

Exponential Growth Projected Post-2029

Goldman Sachs initially released its LEO satellite industry forecast in February 2025.

The latest report indicates the actual global LEO satellite count by the end of 2025 is approximately 9,982 units, slightly above the prior forecast of 9,700, suggesting launch progress has exceeded initial expectations.

The divergence between the old and new forecasts is not significant in the near term but widens dramatically over time.

The new forecast for 2026 is 13,088 units, only about 9% higher than the old forecast of 12,000. The 2028 new forecast is 23,796 units, roughly 25% above the old 19,000-unit forecast. The true inflection point appears in 2029—the new forecast surges to 90,042 units, a 278% year-over-year increase. It climbs further to 164,244 units in 2030 and reaches 305,293 units in 2031, a full 634% above the old forecast of 42,000 units.

Goldman Sachs explicitly states that the vast gap between the old and new forecasts stems primarily from incorporating space data centers into the satellite application scenario framework. This new dimension fundamentally alters the projected growth trajectory for industry installations.

Space Data Centers as the Primary Growth Driver

A breakdown by application scenario reveals a critical structural shift in the forecast.

From 2025 to 2028, 100% of the incremental global LEO installations are attributed to satellite internet. Entering 2029, the share for space data centers jumps to 63%, while satellite internet's share falls to 37%. By 2031, the space data center share rises further to 79%, with a base case installation volume of 241,486 units, compared to just 63,807 units for satellite internet.

The report outlines the core appeal of space data centers: access to virtually unlimited low-cost solar power and edge computing capabilities enabling direct processing of satellite data.

However, Goldman Sachs acknowledges that the technical feasibility of space data centers still requires validation. This implies that whether the post-2029 installation forecasts materialize depends significantly on this new business model successfully transitioning from concept to scaled implementation, representing the forecast's greatest uncertainty.

Optimistic 'Blue Sky' Scenario

Goldman Sachs also presents an optimistic "Blue Sky" scenario, with core assumptions including better-than-expected rocket launch capacity, accelerated commercialization of satellite communications, and the long-term realization of the 200,000-unit LEO constellation plans submitted by Chinese entities.

Under this Blue Sky scenario, global LEO installations could reach 395,624 units by 2031, approximately 30% higher than the 305,293-unit base case.

The most significant difference between the two scenarios stems from China. In the base case, China's 2031 installations are 23,750 units, accounting for 8% of the global total. Under the Blue Sky scenario, this number jumps to 101,148 units, representing 26% of the global total.

As of the end of 2025, Chinese satellite operators had only 253 satellites actually in operation. However, they have collectively submitted applications to the International Telecommunication Union for over 200,000 medium and low Earth orbit satellites.

Goldman Sachs interprets this as a strategic move to secure spectrum and orbital resources, rather than a definitive short-term launch plan.

Rocket Technology as a Key Variable

Goldman Sachs identifies advancements in rocket technology as a critical constraint determining whether the forecasted installation volumes can be achieved, analyzing it across three dimensions: launch frequency, payload capacity improvement, and reusability technology.

Regarding launch frequency, leading operator Starlink achieved an average launch cadence of once every three days in 2025. In April 2026, SpaceX set a record with two rocket launches within 19 hours, indicating potential for further efficiency gains.

In terms of payload capacity, current mainstream reusable rockets have a LEO payload of approximately 17,500 kg. Next-generation rockets are expected to have payloads of 100 to 150 tons, representing a 6 to 9-fold increase in capacity.

For China, breakthroughs in domestic reusable rockets are a key milestone for accelerating LEO satellite expansion. Current progress includes:

The Long March 10: Successfully completed a first-stage soft landing and sea splashdown test in February 2026, and completed a first-stage rocket net recovery test on July 10th.

The Zhuque-3: Its test flight in December 2025 was partially successful, with a recovery test flight planned for the second quarter of 2026.

The Hyperbola-3: Its maiden launch is planned before the end of 2026.

The PALLAS-1: Galaxy Space's reusable rocket, with its first launch planned for 2026.