On the last trading day before National Day, A-shares maintained low volume levels, with the three major indices closing mixed. The central bank's "four arrows" policy bottom has been solidified, but the electronics sector saw a single-day net outflow exceeding 10.9 billion yuan, and the chip concept saw a net outflow of nearly 16 billion yuan. The bleeding in the tech direction has not yet stopped, and investors holding semiconductor positions need to be wary of continued pressure after the holiday.
Today's review of September 30 marks the official end of A-shares' third-quarter performance. As of today's close, the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index fell 27.8% and 30.7% respectively during this quarter (July to September), both recording their largest single-quarter declines in history and significantly underperforming other major market indices. From a sector perspective, electronics and communications led the declines in the third quarter, falling 32.6% and 28.7% respectively, while building materials, power equipment, and machinery equipment sectors also performed poorly. Among sub-sectors, glass fiber, electronic chemicals, non-metallic materials, energy metals, and semiconductors ranked in the top five for declines, while real estate, services, medical services, education, fisheries, and planting sectors posted the strongest gains in the third quarter.
Hong Kong stocks rallied in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.37%, down 3.7% for the month; the Hang Seng Tech Index closed up 0.10%, down 7.9% for the month. Star tech stocks closed mixed. South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.48% to close at 6,838.04 points; Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.94% to close at 66,753.72 points.
Today's Changes
Change One: The Central Bank's "Four Arrows" Officially Land, Policy Bottom Fully Solidified
The central bank announced on September 29 adjustments and improvements to four monetary policy tools: cutting the PSL interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%; including the construction of the "six networks" in PSL support areas; increasing the re-lending quota for technological innovation and industrial upgrading by 200 billion yuan, raising the support ratio from 60% to 100%; and increasing the re-lending quota for agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan (of which 300 billion yuan is additional re-lending for private enterprises). This is a combined arrangement featuring "restrained aggregate, precise structure, and targeted force." The PSL rate cut directly reduces the liability costs of policy banks, and the inclusion of the "six networks" in support means that infrastructure directions such as computing power networks, new-type power grids, and communication networks will receive long-term stable policy funding support. The sci-tech re-lending quota increased from 1.2 trillion yuan to 1.4 trillion yuan, constituting a medium-term positive for hard tech directions such as semiconductors and AI hardware. After the holiday, watch whether funds have new motivations.
Change Two: Main Funds Switch from Electronics to Pharmaceuticals, Clear Signal of Direction Shift
Today, main funds saw net inflows into pharmaceuticals and biologics, chemical pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and automotive industries, while seeing net outflows from electronics, semiconductors, and computers. On the last trading day before the holiday, funds clearly chose to switch "from high-level tech to low-level pharmaceuticals + consumer + automotive." This is not a short-term risk-aversion behavior, but a "structural positioning" for the post-holiday market.
Change Three: Private Funds Strongly Willing to "Hold Stocks Through the Holiday," but Position Structure Is Shifting
A survey by Simuwang shows that nearly 60% of private funds surveyed tend to maintain heavy or full positions (above 80%) before the holiday, while less than 8% of private funds tend to hold light or empty positions (below 40%) and hold cash through the holiday. Institutional funds are generally optimistic about the post-holiday market, believing that the market has basically priced in pessimistic expectations, and that with the continuous repair of corporate fundamentals, structural opportunities after the holiday are expected to further unfold.
There is no need to be pessimistic about the post-holiday market, but direction matters more than position. The institutional consensus is "balanced allocation," and betting solely on tech or defensive directions may underperform.
Solemn Declaration: This content is published to disseminate more information, for reference and exchange purposes only. It is by no means a recommendation and does not constitute investment advice. Operate at your own risk.