Global markets experienced a surge of euphoria late on the 17th, following news suggesting the Strait of Hormuz was being opened. According to reports, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated on social media that, in light of the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all merchant vessels during the truce period. US President Trump subsequently confirmed this but stated that the maritime blockade on Iran would continue.

Spurred by the news, the three major US stock indices all rose by more than 1%, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite reaching new record highs. The US dollar fell sharply, while gold and silver prices surged. International oil prices experienced a flash crash.

However, the celebratory market mood did not last until Monday, as the situation in the Middle East took another turn. On the afternoon of the 18th, reports cited an Iranian military spokesperson stating that, due to the US "repeatedly breaking its promises," control over the Strait of Hormuz had reverted to its previous status, with the strait now under the strict management and control of the Iranian armed forces. Furthermore, reports indicated that Iran had not yet agreed to hold the next round of negotiations with the United States.

Following the announcement, Bitcoin experienced a short-term drop, falling back to the $76,000 level, while SOL, Ethereum, and Dogecoin also saw declines of varying degrees. Over the past 24 hours, more than 156,000 positions were liquidated globally, with total liquidations exceeding $7 billion.

While market sentiment had shown improvement, the overall situation remains fragile. Previously, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that Iran would permit the passage of non-military vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but they must use designated routes and coordinate with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.

Data from MarineTraffic showed that approximately 20 vessels attempted to exit the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz on the evening of the 17th but ceased movement shortly after, with most turning back.

Shipping companies responded to Iran's announcement with cautious welcome but indicated that further clarification was needed before resuming transit, particularly regarding security risks such as the presence of sea mines.

Maersk stated it had noted the announcement and had been following the guidance of its security partners in the region since the conflict began; the current advice remains to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Any decision to transit the strait will be based on risk assessment, close monitoring of the security situation, and incorporating the latest developments into ongoing evaluations.

Experts are warning against excessive market optimism. For the week, the NASDAQ surged 6.84%, the S&P 500 rose 4.54%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.19%, marking the largest weekly gains for all three indices since April of last year. Following the close on the 17th, the NASDAQ had risen for 13 consecutive trading days, matching its longest winning streak since 1992. The S&P 500 was up 9% for the month to date, its largest monthly gain since 2020.

Behind the market euphoria, risks remain elevated, and the situation could lead to a prolonged stalemate. Reports indicated that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Command issued new regulations for vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz on the evening of the 17th. A subsequent statement from an Iranian Defense Ministry spokesperson emphasized that the opening of the Strait of Hormuz was conditional and temporary.

The IRGC Navy Command stated the new regulations require that civilian vessels must use designated Iranian routes; military vessels remain prohibited from passage; and all vessel transits must be coordinated with the IRGC Navy. These new rules are in line with the implementation of the temporary ceasefire agreement involving Iran, the US, Israel, Lebanon, and Israel.

Iran issued strong statements regarding the continued US maritime blockade. The Iranian spokesperson stated that Iran views the US blockade as a violation of the ceasefire agreement and would take necessary countermeasures if it continues. The Commander of the Iranian Navy described the US blockade as essentially "piracy." The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament stated on social media that Iran would never relinquish jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz, and the strait could not remain open if the US blockade continues.

Sarah Bianchi, Chief International Political Affairs Strategist at Evercore ISI, anticipates that long-term risks will persist, suggesting the Middle East crisis appears to be moving towards a temporary and fragile resolution. Even if an agreement is eventually reached, many core issues remain unresolved.

Tankers currently stranded in the Persian Gulf are carrying at least 135 million barrels of crude oil and refined products. Even if the strait were to fully reopen, it would take weeks for these vessels to reach their destinations, and a return to normal oil and gas production in the Middle East could take months or even years.