加拿大央行或将以数据为锚,淡化美加贸易摩擦的“情绪噪音”

投资观察
Sep 01

加拿大经济似乎正站在更为坚实的土壤上。这一稳固的基本面,或许将赋予加拿大央行(Bank of Canada)面对美加贸易紧张局势升级时,保持冷静与从容的充分理由。RSM Canada经济学家Tu Nguyen女士作出了上述判断。她向WSJ表示:“至关重要的是,要将冰冷的数据与炽热的情绪分离开来。”Nguyen指出,今年第二季度,加拿大居民消费支出与家庭储蓄率双双出现攀升,这为经济韧性提供了有力注脚。

美国已对价值占其对美出口总额5%的部分加拿大商品,征收了高达50%的惩罚性关税。对此,Nguyen认为,这些措施“对特定行业而言无疑将是切肤之痛,但若站上央行的宏观视角,整体冲击仍在可控范围之内。”不过,她也并未全然排除变数。Nguyen预计,加拿大央行可能在明年第一季度开启加息步伐,但她同时坦言,这一政策预测并非板上钉钉,极有可能随着美加贸易关系的演变以及能源价格的剧烈波动而适时调整。

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