Citi stated that oil prices could rise further if negotiations between the United States and Iran continue to be deadlocked, even though reduced inventories, the release of strategic petroleum reserves, weak demand, and occasional signs of easing tensions have helped mitigate the impact. Citi indicated that its base case forecast remains that supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will ease by the end of May, but noted that the difficulty in reaching a U.S.-Iran agreement increases the risk of near-term oil price increases. The bank maintains its three-month price forecast for Brent crude at $120 per barrel. It expects the average price of Brent crude in the second quarter to be $110 per barrel, before falling to $95 in the third quarter and further declining to $80 in the fourth quarter. Citi said, "We continue to believe that the crude oil market is underestimating duration risk and tail risk."