On Wednesday, June 10th, international gold prices experienced a significant decline and closed lower. Escalating geopolitical tensions, including consecutive US airstrikes on Iran over two days and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pushed oil prices higher and strengthened the US dollar. Additionally, the US May CPI reached a three-year high, further boosting market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. This pushed gold prices to refresh the March low, touching the 60-week moving average support target as anticipated. If prices cannot rebound above $4400 from this level, a further decline towards the 100-week moving average support, currently at $3565, is expected.

In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4252.81 per ounce, briefly recording an intraday high of $4257.20 before embarking on a volatile downtrend. This decline continued into the late US trading session, where it touched an intraday low of $4067.18, ultimately closing at $4071.00. The daily range was $190.02, with a closing loss of $181.81, representing a 4.27% drop.

Looking ahead to Thursday, June 11th, international gold opened lower, refreshing the decline's low point. A strengthening US dollar index and opening gains in crude oil continued to exert downward pressure.

Although the released US CPI data largely met expectations, tempering market expectations for a Fed rate hike, the precarious US-Iran ceasefire and the announcement of renewed "heavy strikes" on Iran led to renewed strength in oil and the dollar. This development negated the relief provided by the CPI data, suggesting a stronger outlook for the dollar and a bearish environment for gold.

In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain under pressure and continue their weak downward trajectory.

Focus for the Trading Day

Market attention today will be on the Eurozone's deposit facility rate decision for the period ending June 11th. Market anticipation of a rate rise could pressure the dollar and benefit gold. Later, focus will shift to US data including Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6th, and the US May PPI year-on-year and month-on-month figures. Market expectations lean towards these being positive for gold.

However, based on yesterday's data releases, market movements, and the current fundamental landscape, a rebound is anticipated in the evening session, which may also present a selling opportunity for a subsequent decline.

Technical Analysis Overview

On the monthly chart, the gold price continues to move downward, distancing itself from the resistance posed by the 5 and 10-month moving averages and the rising trendline. The accompanying indicator, KDJ, maintains its bearish signal, and the MACD is poised to form a bearish crossover, indicating increasing downward pressure. This suggests a potential for further declines towards the middle Bollinger Band support near $3800, or even the 30-month moving average support around $3300.

Conversely, if the month concludes with a rebound and a close above $4450, the bearish outlook would weaken, potentially leading to a period of sideways consolidation or a renewed upward move.

On the weekly chart, the price has once again broken below the previous rising channel support, further refreshing lows. It has also initially breached the 60-week moving average support, intensifying bearish pressure. A continued decline towards the 100-week moving average support near $3600 is anticipated in the near term.

On the daily chart, yesterday's sharp decline refreshed the March low. Today's opening price continues to trade outside the lower Bollinger Band, theoretically suggesting a potential for a corrective rebound. However, the prevailing trend remains weak. Resistance at the lower Bollinger Band and pressure from short-term moving averages above continue to offer selling opportunities, with a potential target still seen near the $3900 psychological level.

Intraday Trading Reference Points

The following are preliminary reference points for intraday operations.

Gold: Resistance is noted around $4100 or $4140; support is seen around $3990 or $3900.

Silver: Resistance is noted around $63.65 or $64.30; support is seen around $60.90 or $59.10.