According to a recent report from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US)'s upcoming foldable iPhone is highly likely to replicate the scenario seen with the iPhone X launch, where innovative design posed significant manufacturing challenges, leading to severely constrained initial supply and impacting the sales rollout schedule.

Based on the latest industry survey data, Kuo estimates that assembly shipments for the foldable iPhone in the second half of 2026 will be approximately 7 to 8 million units, with shipments in the third quarter alone expected to be only between 500,000 and 1 million units.

In contrast, combined shipments for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models during the same period are projected to reach 20 to 22 million units, highlighting a substantial disparity.

Kuo stated, "Judging by the third-quarter inventory preparation schedule, the foldable iPhone is likely to follow the same trajectory as the iPhone X in 2017—announced alongside other new models but with both pre-order and official sales dates delayed."

The iPhone X incorporated several groundbreaking technologies, including Apple's first OLED full-screen display, the notch design at the top, Face ID facial recognition, and the TrueDepth front camera system.

Kuo noted, "Due to the iPhone X's extreme manufacturing difficulty, its assembly shipments in Q3 2017 were estimated at less than 1 million units. The foldable iPhone is highly similar in this aspect: both prioritize innovative user experience as a core selling point, but manufacturing bottlenecks constrain early production capacity."

Kuo anticipates that Apple will still officially unveil the foldable iPhone at its annual September event this year, but its pre-order and official launch dates may be later than those of the concurrently announced iPhone 18 series.

For reference, in 2017, the iPhone X was announced on September 12, with pre-orders not starting until October 27 and official sales beginning on November 3. In contrast, the iPhone 8, announced at the same event, opened for pre-orders on September 15 and launched on September 22.

Kuo added, "The reason was that the iPhone X's inventory at the time did not meet the standard required for a September launch. Therefore, given the limited foldable iPhone shipments in Q3 2026, pre-orders and official sales may be postponed to the fourth quarter."

Regarding pricing, Kuo predicts the foldable iPhone will be priced between $2,300 and $2,500.

He pointed out, "Initial supply scarcity, high-recognition exterior design, and innovative user experience will all support short-term premiums in the secondary market, making resale prices 50% to 100% above the official retail price a distinct possibility."