美债收益率正迈向连续第二个交易日的下行轨道,这一走势的背后,是市场对美联储本月加息可能性的预期出现明显降温——相关概率已从此前的63%滑落至50%。值得注意的是,即便推动收益率近期攀升至高位的基本面因素尚未发生实质性改变,债券市场依然选择了回调。与此同时,原油期货价格上扬1%,布伦特原油更是触及每桶96美元的水平,这无疑令通胀担忧继续萦绕市场心头。最新数据显示,美国7月贸易逆差扩大至886亿美元,但幅度不及市场预期;每周初请失业金人数则基本持平,维持在20.6万人。外汇市场上,美元指数走弱0.5%,其中对日元汇率更是下跌2%,市场普遍猜测这与日本当局的干预举动有关。截至发稿,基准10年期美债收益率已从隔夜的4.781%回落至4.744%,而2年期收益率亦由4.376%降至4.317%。
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