美国消费者价格在6月如期上扬，标志着市场期待已久的关税驱动型通胀浪潮可能启动，这一趋势令美联储对重启降息保持高度警惕。消费者价格指数（CPI）上月环比增长0.3%，高于5月0.1%的微幅上升，创下自1月以来最大月度涨幅。同比数据中，CPI跃升至2.7%，远超5月的2.4%。经济学家此前预测月度增幅为0.3%，年度增幅为2.6%。通胀读数在2月至5月持续低迷，促使特朗普总统多次施压央行下调借贷成本。分析指出，4月宣布的全面进口关税影响滞后，原因在于企业仍在消化关税生效前的库存。特朗普上周宣布8月1日起对墨西哥、日本、加拿大、巴西及欧盟等国家加征关税，经济学家预计今夏商品价格将持续走高。剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心CPI在6月环比上升0.2%，略高于前月的0.1%；同比增幅达2.9%，结束此前连续三个月2.8%的平稳期。强劲的商品涨价潮可能被服务成本温和上升部分抵消，缓解了全面通胀压力。需求疲软抑制了航空票价和酒店住宿等服务领域的价格增长。美联储以2%为通胀目标，本月政策会议料将维持基准利率于4.25%-4.50%区间。上周公布的6月会议纪要显示，仅有少数官员支持7月底降息。高盛预测未来数月核心CPI将每月攀升0.3%-0.4%，反映关税对电子产品、汽车及服装价格的推升效应，但服务通胀短期影响有限。
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